The amount of money spent on each child’s education in Wales has barely changed since 2010, a new report shows. The average £7,000 per pupil spend is only around 3% higher than more than a decade ago, despite stable pupil numbers in that time.
The Institute for Fiscal Studies report said policy makers in Wales, unlike higher spending counterparts in Scotland, have not used virtually static pupil numbers since 2010 to deliver per pupil spending increases. It said: "Wales stands out as seeing much lower growth in total spending than that seen on other nations of the UK, partly reflecting much lower pressures from changes in pupil numbers."
Although funding has risen in very recent years, cuts between 2009-10 and 2018-19 means it is still around 2010 levels, the report adds: “Between 2009–10 and 2018–19, spending per pupil fell by 8% in real terms in England and by 5% in real terms in Wales. In Northern Ireland, there was a fall of 8% in the shorter period between 2011–12 and 2018–19.
“Since then, spending per pupil has increased across all three nations, though at slightly different rates. Spending per pupil in England grew by 7½% in real terms between 2018–19 and 2022–23. This mostly reflects increases in funding announced at recent spending reviews.
“In Wales, spending per pupil rose by 8% in real terms between 2018–19 and 2022–23, a similar rate of growth to England.”
By contrast in Scotland school spending per pupil in 2022-23 was more than £8,500, 18% or £1,300 higher than seen in Wales, England and Northern Ireland, all of which spend around £7,200 per pupil, the report estimates, although that varies slightly between local authorities.
School spending per pupil in Scotland was already higher than in other UK nations in 2010. Since then, the gap with the rest of the UK has significantly grown, the report says. But the authors caution that higher spend has not necessarily yet delivered better educational outcomes north of the border.
“Policymakers in Scotland have taken advantage of relatively low growth in pupil numbers to deliver a large real-terms increase in spending per pupil. In England and Northern Ireland, total spending had to keep pace with rapid rises in pupil numbers. In Wales, pupil numbers have barely changed at all since 2010, but policymakers did not use this as an opportunity to increase spending per pupil.”
The IFS report "How does school spending per pupil differ across the UK?" looks at 2022–23 prices and relates to total day to day school spending on children aged 3–19 by schools, local authorities and funding agencies.
Key findings include:
- Spending per pupil in Scotland grew by 13% in real terms between 2009–10 and 2022–23. This partly reflects funding to cover higher teacher pay offers, such as the 7% salary rises in both 2019–20 and 2022–23.
- In Wales, spending per pupil in 2022–23 is only about 3% higher than in 2009–10,
- Pupil numbers have grown by 13% in England since 2009–10 and by 8% in Northern Ireland since 2011–12. This meant that large rises in total spending were needed in England (12%) and Northern Ireland (10%) as part of efforts to keep pace with rising pupil numbers.
- In Scotland, pupil numbers have only grown by 2% since 2009–10. This meant that growth in total spending in Scotland (15%) only had to be a bit higher than in England to deliver a much larger rise in spending per pupil in Scotland.
- In Wales, pupil numbers have barely changed at all since 2010. However, unlike Scotland, policymakers in Wales have not used this as an opportunity to deliver a big rise in spending per pupil. Instead, total spending and spending per pupil in Wales have both only grown by 3% in real terms since 2009–10.
- Pupil numbers are now expected to drop across all nations. Forecasts for pupil numbers imply falls of about 6–8% across all four nations over the next five years, with further falls after that.
The report said falling pupil numbers might make it easier to deliver real-terms increases in spending per pupil at a national level but could “create headaches for individual schools”.
"Looking to the future, all four nations are likely to experience a similar drop in pupil numbers over the near future. In England the number of pupils in state-funded schools is expected to fall by 6% over the next five years, between 2023 and 2028. In Wales the number of pupils in maintained schools is expected to drop by 7% over those years.
In Scotland, the number of pupils is expected to fall by 7% between 2022 and 2027. And in Northern Ireland the number of children aged 5–14 is forecast to fall by 7–8% between 2023 and 2028. Naturally, these falls are expected to initially be larger in primary schools, before then feeding into secondary schools.
"On one level, falls in pupil numbers will allow spending to go further, with existing spending levels spread over a smaller population. A given increase in total spending will deliver a larger increase in spending per pupil.
"However, falling pupil numbers will create challenges for individual schools. Mostly pupil-led funding systems will lead to falls in funding for many schools. With costs mostly fixed in the short run, some schools may find it difficult to cover costs."
Luke Sibieta, IFS Research Fellow and author, said: “School spending per pupil in Scotland is now over 18% higher than in the rest of the UK. This big gap mostly reflects less pressure from pupil numbers and relatively recent spending rises.
“It would be too soon to expect much of an effect on educational outcomes. However, spending per pupil in Scotland has been higher than in the rest of the UK for a long period and educational outcomes have continued to disappoint over the last decade.
"In Wales vast majority of schools in Wales will now be experiencing falling pupil rolls, which may create budgetary headaches for individual schools as costs are unlikely to fall as quickly as pupil numbers."
Josh Hillman, Director of Education at the Nuffield Foundation, said: "These new figures show a wide and growing disparity in funding for pupils between Scotland and the other three nations of the UK, but it’s yet to be seen if the 18% of higher spend on Scottish students is effective in helping to narrow the gap in inequalities or improve the life chances of young people."
The report's calculations takes into account Covid spending and notes Wales and Northern Ireland spent about £800 per pupil in total across the two years of the pandemic in today’s prices, while England and Scotland spent only about £300 per pupil.
The Welsh Government responds
Responding to the report’s findings a Welsh Government spokesperson said spending per pupil had risen by 8% in since 2018.
“Spending per pupil in Wales rose by 8% in real terms between 2018–19 and 2022–23 to about £7,200. The latest PESA (Public Expenditure Statistical Analyses) shows that spending per person on education in Wales is 17% higher than in England.
“The IFS report shows that total Covid-related spending on schools in Wales was the highest in the UK.The Welsh Government will continue to prioritise school spending.” To get our free daily briefing on the biggest issues affection the nation, Wales Matters, click here
Read next:
- Schools don’t have enough money to keep children safe or provide the statutory level of education, warn governors
- Pupil gets £25,000 payout for bullying and assault
- New £46m push to tackle Wales' school absence problem
- Welsh school pupils kept inside after youths threw 'stones and cans' at staff
Unqualified school support staff learning GCSE subjects on YouTube before teaching exam classes
