In the final week of the regular season, prop bet options drop significantly. Teams that have locked into playoff spots are resting players for a meaningless game and also out-of-contention teams are making business decisions about benching players. There also will be scoreboard-watchers who figure out in real time where they stand.
For the Week 18 picks, we have the most electric wide receiver in the game being held under his projection, an 2023 underperforming wide receiver going over his number in the biggest game of his season, an overachieving quarterback going under his passing total, a quarterback playing for his future doing what he does best, and the best young receiver in the league scoring a touchdown.
Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook
5
Minnesota Vikings WR Justin Jefferson scores a touchdown (+100)
The Vikings’ season has been a huge disappointment, but they remain alive in the playoff chase by a thread. The Lions have something to play for with a remote chance of making it to the No. 2 seed. Whether Detroit has a big lead, they bench some of their players in the second half or the game is contested, Jefferson could catch a touchdown in any of these scenarios. Minnesota will be taking chances and that typically involves a couple 50/50 balls deep downfield to Jefferson.
4
Miami Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill UNDER 92.5 receiving yards (-115)
Anyone who bets against Hill not surpassing a receiving yardage number does so at their own peril. However, Hill has been held under this number in two of his last three games. In the three games he has played against the Buffalo Bills as a member of the Dolphins, his yardage totals have been 33, 69 and 58 yards. The Bills have made a concerted effort to make anybody other than Hill beat them. They’ve done this with much less at stake than there will be Sunday night. Expect bracket coverage on almost every down.
3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers WR Chris Godwin OVER 52.5 receiving yards (-115)
Anyone who had Godwin on their fantasy rosters this season and were counting on him were regularly disappointed. However, as the Bucs have scrapped their way to put themselves in a position where they control their own playoff destiny. When the Buccaneers played the Carolina Panthers a month ago, Godwin didn’t catch a pass. In the four games since, his yardage totals have been 53, 155, 78 and 81.
2
Seattle Seahawks QB Geno Smith UNDER 259.5 passing yards (-115)
This number is solid for when Smith plays teams that aren’t familiar with him after nearly a decade of irrelevance. In the two seasons he has made his resurgence, he has played division opponents six times – those that have tape on him against every defense in the division, much less their own. His high-water mark is 238 yards. The only way he should top this number is if the Seahawks are down double-digits early and become one-dimensional, and that’s not the Arizona Cardinals’ 2023 M.O.
1
Chicago Bears QB Justin Fields OVER 55.5 rushing yards (-115)
Fields has been playing for his career for the last month. Thanks to having the No. 1 pick in the draft last year, the Bears were able to auction that pick away for talent. The trade was made with Carolina. The Bears have the No. 1 pick again. The Bears are 4-2 since Fields came back from injury, and he has topped this number in four of six games, averaging 13 rushes a game. If the Bears knock the Green Bay Packers out of the playoffs on their home turf, not only do the Bears trade out of No. 1 again, Fields starts his legacy. He has everything to gain and little to lose. He may run 15 times.
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