This week’s bets are based on history, including the continuance of a pair of one-sided division rivalries, two matchups of preseason playoff hopefuls now trying to save their seasons with one going Over and one staying Under, and getting the undefeated defending champs plus points.
Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook
5
Take Kansas City Chiefs on the moneyline (+115) at Buffalo Bills
This betting line is giving Patrick Mahomes 2.5 points. The reality of giving Mahomes and the Chiefs points is a losing proposition. Mahomes is 11-3 as a starter when an underdog and 12-1-1 against the spread. If you feel strongly about the Bills winning, history would tell you to not bet this game, because Mahomes beats the odds.
4
Las Vegas Raiders at Miami Dolphins: Take OVER 44 points (-110)
Both teams are wallowing to survive, but they share a commonality. The Dolphins offense since Tua Tagovailoa‘s return has put up point totals of 27, 27 and 23. The Raiders defense has allowed 27 or more points in four of their last five games, including 68 points in the last two games. The Dolphins could post most of the needed total up themselves.
3
Cleveland Browns at New Orleans Saints: Take UNDER 44.5 points (-110)
This one screams Under. The Browns have scored 18 or fewer points in eight of nine games and 16 points or fewer in six of their last seven. In their last four games, the Saints’ offensive scoring totals are 10, 8, 22, 20. You don’t have to be good at math to figure out those are low numbers. Hitting the Over will likely require a defensive/special teams touchdown.
2
Take San Francisco 49ers and lay 6.5 points (-110) vs. Seattle Seahawks
In their last five head-to-head meetings, the 49ers have won them all. The margin of victory in those games has been 12, 12, 18, 8 and 20 points – the most recent being the 12 points in Week 6 in the House of the Artist Formerly Known as the 12th Man. Pushing into double digits for a better return number is worth pursuing.
1
Take Green Bay Packers and lay 5.5 points (-110) at Chicago Bears
The Packers are 0-2 in their division, because they played the Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings. These are the Bears. Green Bay has beaten Chicago the last 10 games since 2019 and covered this number every time. Five-and-a-hook is rough, but this isn’t a rivalry until something changes.
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