Academics believe a recent tweet by fugitive former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra was intended as a political gambit to drum up support for the Pheu Thai Party, which pollsters are predicting may lose votes to the increasingly popular Move Forward Party (MFP) ahead of the May 14 general election.
Thaksin tweeted on Monday that now his seventh and youngest grandchild has been born, he will be back soon because, at 73 years old, he wants to take care of his grandchildren.
Thaksin wrote on Twitter that he was delighted with the news that his daughter Paetongtarn Shinawatra had just given birth to his seventh grandchild.
He added that all seven were born after he left the country.
"I'd like to ask for permission to return to take care of the grandchildren because I will be 74 years old this July. See you soon," Thaksin wrote.
Ms Paetongtarn, herself a prime ministerial candidate for the Pheu Thai Party, wrote on Instagram that her son had been named Phruethasin Suksawat, and his nickname was Thasin.
She thanked everyone for giving her moral support and said she would meet the press soon when she had recovered from the birth.
However, Olarn Thinbangtieo, a political science lecturer at Burapha University, said he believed that there must be an ulterior political motive behind Thaksin's tweet.
"He previously promised that he would stop communicating," Mr Olarn said, adding that the latest tweet could be linked to a decline in Pheu Thai's popularity, particularly on social media where the MFP is gaining the upper hand, particularly in major cities such as Bangkok.
"The MFP's rising popularity will have an impact on Pheu Thai's bid to achieve a landslide victory in the poll.
"This may force Pheu Thai to enter into an alliance with parties from the opposite end of the political spectrum, which may lead to some undecided voters supporting the MFP instead of Pheu Thai," he said.
"This is why Thaksin has to step forward to call for sympathy from voters by saying he wants to return to take care of his grandchildren," Mr Olarn told the Bangkok Post.
Jade Donavanik, dean of the faculty of law at Dhurakij Pundit University, echoed the view, saying that Thaksin believed the MFP's increasing popularity is posing a threat to Pheu Thai.
"Thaksin wants to ensure Pheu Thai's traditional base of 11-15 million supporters is well guarded, and he should be happy about that," Mr Jade said.
He pointed out that there was no need for Thaksin to fight on multiple fronts against both the MFP and other rival parties, such as the United Thai Nation Party (UTN) or the Palang Pracharath Party, because the MFP is already the rival of these parties.
Prinya Thaewanarumitkul, a law lecturer at Thammasat University, said that Thaksin's latest tweet would sway those who want him to return home into voting for Pheu Thai.
However, this would also prompt those who dislike him to throw their support behind the UTN, which has Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha as its prime ministerial candidate, Mr Prinya said.
On Oct 21, 2008, the Supreme Court's Criminal Division for Holders of Political Positions sentenced Thaksin to two years in jail, convicting him of violating the National Counter Corruption Act in the Ratchadaphisek land purchase case.
He was charged with abusing his authority when he gave consent to his then-wife Khunying Potjaman na Pombejra to participate in the auction of the 33 rai area put on the block by the Financial Institutions Development Fund. He fled the country in 2008, just before the court sentenced him. He then jumped bail after attending the opening ceremony of the Olympic Games with his then-wife in Beijing in August 2008. The couple later divorced, and she returned to Thailand.
Speaking in an interview with Kyodo News during a trip to Tokyo on March 24, Thaksin said he is ready to serve his prison term provided he is allowed to spend the rest of his life with his family.
However, critics did not believe he was serious about returning to Thailand and serving jail time.
