Russia has warned NATO that it is ready to use nuclear weapons if the alliance seeks to cut off Kaliningrad, an enclave bordering the Baltic Sea, according to a new report.
A document accuses the alliance of going through a "dangerous and reckless course" that puts the sides at "high risks of the outbreak of a direct armed conflict," according to Reuters. It also threats with "Russian strikes against decision-making centers in the alliance's member states right from the outset".
"Russia will be ready to use the entire arsenal of forces and capabilities at its disposal, including nuclear weapons, in order to defend its territory should NATO countries undertake any attempt aimed at isolating the Kaliningrad Region from the rest of the country," the document added.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte reacted to the message, saying "we are a defensive alliance" and called on Moscow to "stop the nuclear threats." "This is absolutely not called for and not helpful," he added.
In a document of its own, NATO said its none of its "exercises or activities pose a threat to the territory of the Russian Federation".
"We call upon the Russian Federation to end its unprovoked full-scale invasion of Ukraine. We urge the Russian Federation to refrain from increasingly reckless behavior towards the Allies and to cease its irresponsible nuclear rhetoric," it added.
Different European countries have warned about the chance that Russia will escalate hostilities further.
The Danish Defence Intelligence Service released a report in September noting that Russia has "intensified its use of sabotage, destructive cyber attacks and is attacking targets in Europe with drones," concluding that "hybrid war is escalating."
It went on to recall a foiled drone attack in Germany, which Berlin openly blamed on Moscow, noting that it has "become more willing to take risks." And warned of potential "sabotage on Danish soil against defence companies."
Elsewhere in the report, the agency noted that Russia is "under more pressure than it has been at any other point during the war against Ukraine," sustaining heavy losses on the battlefield and with the economy "on the brink of a major crisis."
The document then notes that Russia has no prospect of "achieving any major breakthroughs in the war against Ukraine over the next six months," and it's unlikely that President Vladimir Putin will "be willing to compromise on his fundamental objectives of war."
And considering that "Europe will gradually develop an autonomous military capability by 2030," which will "pose an increasing threat to Russia," the coming years will be a "window of opportunity" for Moscow. This context could lead Putin to conclude that "it is worth the risk attempting to drastically change the security order in Europe."
There is also a risk of the mentioned limited military attack against NATO countries bordering Russia, which could happen "even if Russia continues the war against Ukraine and has not built the military capabilities necessary to wage a regional war." The eventual attack would likely seek to "redirect European resources away from supporting Ukraine and to sow division within NATO, should the alliance fail to agree on a collective response."
Another possibility is Russia deploying a "limited number of military forces, possibly without national insignia, into NATO countries bordering Russia." That would be preceded by a buildup of regular forces to counter a potential response.
