On Friday, I wrote a post that totaled nearly 6,000 words about the New York Times bombshell report on Dobbs. My initial goal was to simply lay out all of the new disclosures–and there were many of them. Now, I've had some time to think about this new information. Here, I will offer ten reflections about how Justices Kavanaugh and Barrett voted in Dobbs. In this post, I will presume that the reporting is accurate, with all the usual caveats about assumptions, as explained by Felix Unger (for another classic TV reference that most readers will not get).
First, the Dobbs petition was filed before Justice Ginsburg's death–indeed, it was filed a five days before June Medical was decided. Were there four votes to grant before RBG's death? In June Medical, there seemed to be three solid votes to reverse Roe: Justices Thomas, Alito, and Gorsuch. At the time, I wasn't sure if Justice Kavanaugh was on board, but there were favorable tea leaves in June Medical. The Chief, as always, was the wildcard. I was optimistic, but deep down, I never thought he would actually pull the trigger. Maybe John Roberts circa 2006 would have, but not after NFIB, and certainly not after Trump. And in hindsight, Roberts would do what the Casey plurality did, except move the line up from viability to fifteen weeks. Would it make sense for Justice Kavanaugh to vote to grant if Roberts was going to reaffirm Roe?
