TCU is just one win away from completing one of the more improbable title runs in recent memory, but first the Horned Frogs have to go through the reigning champions Monday.
Georgia has been every bit as good as last year’s title team and has an opportunity to become the first repeat national champion since Alabama in 2011 and 2012. Vegas likes them to get it done, favoring the Bulldogs by double-digit points.
The last four national title games since the 2017 season have all ended with margins of 15 points or more. But if TCU and Georgia’s narrow CFP semifinal wins are any indication, this game could be more competitive. Below is a look at how the FTW staff thinks the game will go.
Over/under 63.5 points
Prince: Under
All the signs point to an over in this game, with two of TCU’s last three games eclipsing this number and each of Georgia’s last two games. And yet, I’m going the other way because we’re still talking about one of the best defensive teams in the nation. Additionally, I don’t think TCU builds a big early lead the way it did against Michigan because Georgia’s offense won’t stay stagnant for as long as the Wolverines did. If Georgia can gain early control of this game, I think that plays to the under.
Caroline: Over
I’m taking the over because the semifinals have convinced me that the name of the game is offense in 2022-23. Now, I almost sided with my esteemed colleague Prince because is it really possible that we will get a third game that’s as explosive as the Fiesta and Peach Bowls? Here’s hoping the answer is yes.
Anytime TD scorer
Prince: Max Duggan
If you want a safer bet, go with Georgia back Kenny McIntosh or even TCU’s Kendre Miller. But I’m swinging for the fences on this one, because I love the odds on a Duggan touchdown. TCU isn’t going to overpower Georgia up front, so if the Frogs are going to run for a touchdown, it may come on a read option where he decides to keep the ball or a scramble on a called pass.
Caroline: Brock Bowers
Bowers is Stetson Bennett’s favorite receiver in terms of number of receptions (56), yards (790) and touchdowns (6). That makes me think that he’s going to look for Bowers — the 2022 Mackey Award Winner — in the biggest game of the year.
Winner and final score prediction
Prince: Georgia wins 38-22
TCU’s Quentin Johnston will draw a lot of attention from Georgia’s defense, as he should, which means another receiver will have to step up. But unlike the Ohio State passing attack, which gave the Bulldogs fits, the Frogs don’t have a second thousand-yard wideout. That means Max Duggan could struggle if his potent rushing attack doesn’t get going against the nation’s best run defense. That’s exactly what I’m expecting. I’ll take Georgia to cover the 13-point spread.
Caroline: Georgia wins 41-38
I want to be brave enough to call the upset, but I just can’t, so I’m going to stick with my prediction of a Georgia win. UGA’s defense will have one more stop in the tank in what will (hopefully) be a close game.
