Chinese auto giant BYD is going on the offensive. The company is tired of tip-toeing around tariffs and is gunning to become a household name in many markets that are actively working to force BYD's affordable EVs into a less competitive price bracket. And now, it's planning to strike one of the world's most critical auto markets to drive the point home.
Welcome back to Critical Materials, your daily roundup for all things EV and automotive tech. Today, we're chatting about BYD pushing forward with its European plans, the Tesla Cybertruck's reservation list becoming an open book, and Toyota's stern warning on the EV transition's effect on the auto industry's job market. Let's jump in
30%: Tariffs Be Damned, BYD Is Hellbent On Taking Over Europe Anyway
It's been said ad nauseam at this point, but let's say it again for the folks in the back: cheap EVs from China are coming. The U.S., Canada, and Europe have all been preparing their own respective strategies on how to protect their domestic auto markets from an influx of affordable battery-powered cars. Still, the core idea remains largely the same: protectionism through tariffs.
That isn't going to stall BYD, though. What is the company's first stop before the tariffs officially kick in next month? Europe's automotive powerhouse—or as it's better known—Germany.
BYD President Stella Li said in an interview with German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung that she believes BYD can begin convincing European customers en masse to buy into the company's cars within six months. BYD is keeping its exact sales target a secret (unlike Mexico, which BYD is publicly targeting an output of 100,000 cars in 2025), but Li's words are strong here.
The company plans to directly compete with domestic brands by launching affordable models starting at a price between $27,000 and $33,000 (25,000 to 30,000 EUR)—a tall ask given the European Union's recent pledge to increase duty fees on Chinese-built EVs. Li notes that the company has also planned for the future and could open additional factories in countries like Hungary (slated to go online in 2025) and Turkey (in 2026) that could help reduce the import burden on the automaker and consumers.
Li attributes China's rapid adoption of EVs to China's commitment to electrification. She says that the political back-and-forth (including policy on tariffs) only makes the consumer uncertain about the future of EVs—and the same reason is to blame for the slow adoption rate of EVs.
BYD, which makes both EVs and hybrids, has no intention of planning for the short term:
"We are now hearing that many companies are going back to combustion engine cars. But if the whole world switches to electric cars in five years, they will not be ready for it because they have not invested," said Li. "In the long term, that is very dangerous. It will kill these car manufacturers."
With BYD already in Europe, on Canada's doorstep, and surrounding (but not yet publicly planning to sell in) the U.S., it's positioning itself strategically. To Li's point, if automakers don't adapt quickly, it could lead to an "extinction-level event" for legacy automakers, regardless of what turf they call home.
60%: Tesla Appears To Have Exhausted The U.S. Cybertruck Reservation List
If you reserve a Tesla Cybertruck today, how long do you think you'll have to wait to be at the front of the line? Six months? A year? Two years? Think again.
The Tesla Cybertruck seems to have churned through its entire reservation backlog in a matter of days after opening up orders for the $79,990 non-Foundation Series. And while Tesla hasn't commented about it in any official capacity, some prospective buyers find that they can configure and order their own Cybertruck just days after reserving one at the back of the line.
Here's what one forum-goer had to say on the Cybertruck Owner's Club forums:
I created a CT reservation in mid-July of this year. Just two weeks later (Aug 2nd) we were invited to configure a Foundation Series. Today we received an invite to configure a non-foundation series. I went to the configurator and built a [dual motor] which showed Oct-Nov delivery (presumably out of inventory). Same for CyberBeast. So I am calling it: original (US) reservation list is basically finished.
So what's the deal here—is Tesla really that hard up on converting preorders to sales for the truck?
Let's put things into perspective: not only has the base price of the truck increased from its original $40,000 figure to around $60,000 for the base-trimmed rear-wheel-drive model (when it launches), but buyers can only purchase the dual motor configuration, which starts at $79,990, or the Beast for $99,990.
To add to the price kerfuffle, Tesla's final product fell short of the original specs that it planned to deliver. For starters, its tri-motor model is only rated for about 60% of the 500-mile range buyers expected. Oh, and that service-center-installed $16,000 range extender? Well, that's only expected to get the truck up to 470 miles of range. Its towing capacity and payload specs are also significantly neutered.
With its original specs, Tesla seemingly amassed more than two million preorders for its stainless steel cheese wedge. Each of those orders granted Tesla a $100 (refundable) deposit to hold a buyer's place in line. In the worst case, that's a 0% interest of $200 million in line of credit for Tesla. Best case, it's a sale.
That's not to say that the Cybertruck isn't selling well—it is. According to new data from Kelly Blue Book, the Cybertruck was the third best-selling EV in Q3 2024 with an estimated 16,693 sales, placing it behind the Model 3 with 58,423 sales and the Model Y with 86,801 units sold. However, those numbers don't seem to be telling the same success story that Tesla's reservation numbers have alluded to for the past five years.
At the very least, it's likely fair to say that Tesla isn't able to convert Cybertruck reservations to sales as easily as anticipated—at least not yet.
Likely, many of those who reserved the Cybertruck are waiting for the lower $60,000 trim to hit the streets before deciding on whether or not to pull the trigger. After all, another $20,000 on the Monroney is like tacking an extra $325 per month onto a car note for the next six years.
Or perhaps folks are tired of the CEO's political shilling and banter and are fleeing the Tesla brand. Either way, the next few months will truly show if the Cybertruck has what it takes to prop up the luxury EV truck market or if it could go down in history as a flop.
90%: Toyota Issues Stern Warning: An EV-Only Future Will Wreck The Auto Industry
Toyota has never been a very strong advocate of EVs. Sure, it's offering them (now) and has committed to building out a strong fleet of battery-powered offerings in the future, but that wasn't always the case.
The Japanese automaker still isn't sold on an EV-only future. It's been strong-arming the world into knowing about its multi-pathway approach for future vehicle powertrains. This utopia blends battery-electric with plug-in hybrids, combustion, and fuel cell EVs. AKA: Toyota wants to be the Swiss Army Knife of powertrains.
With that desire comes a warning from Toyota's chairman, Akio Toyoda.
Last last week, Toyoda spoke at the unveiling of a statute depicting his late father, Shoichiro Toyoda—Toyota's former Chairman—at Nagoya University. During the event, Akio's speech covered the importance of Toyota maintaining course with its multi-pathway approach, noting that the future of Japan's automotive workforce is at stake if the entire industry invests in an EV-only future.
"There are 5.5 million people involved in the automotive industry in Japan. Among them are those who have been doing engine-related (work) for a long time," said Toyoda in his speech, according to The Street. "If electric vehicles simply become the only choice, including for our suppliers, those people's jobs would be lost."
Those 5.5 million people Toyoda is referring to aren't just Toyota employees. He's pointing downward to positions at every factory and supplier that indirectly feeds into the machine. But if we're looking at Toyota as a whole, it employs around 380,000 people around the globe and more than 70,000 in Japan. It's unlikely that Toyota would let go of all of its staff, but with less complex machines, there will surely be some cuts.
Toyoda issued this same warning back in 2021. Not much has changed since then—Toyota still plans to convert its fleet of vehicles to offer plug-in hybrid powertrains and offer consumers choices to fit their needs. The goal isn't a single powertrain for Toyota (and Toyoda), but achieving carbon neutrality.
Toyoda might be onto something, though. A study commissioned by Volkswagen in 2020, for example, notes that the final assembly of the Volkswagen ID.3 requires an "employment intensity" just 3% lower than that of the current gas-powered Volkswagen Golf. However, the labor needed for the assembly of the powertrains carries a greater split of around 40%.
So, to Toyoda's point, the industry's supporting workforce could feel the most pain during the transition.
Toyoda said earlier this year that he forecasts EVs to ultimately make up for around 30% of the global auto market. The remainder of the pie is expected to be split between hybrids, FCEVs, and (of course) traditional combustion vehicles. This split would seemingly sustain the most workforce, as it still requires a good mix of labor-intensive jobs across the line.
100%: What's Been The Greatest EV Letdown So Far?
Watching the EV transition is filling me with mixed emotions. I'm sad to predict the eventual end of the era for combustion sports cars, but I am also very excited about the possibilities of what's to come.
That being said, there have been a few flops along the way. For example, some brands haven't quite made it out of the startup phase (or survived long enough to deliver on vehicles that seemed promising). Or, there's the continual promise of solid-state batteries coming to market "soon"—no doubt it will happen, but with a disappointing timeline, consumers are growing restless. And let's not forget about the Cybertruck's spec letdown, as mentioned above.
That being said, what has been your greatest EV-related letdown to date? Let me know in the comments.
Contact the author: rob.stumpf@insideevs.com
