Setting up a high-stakes test of whether it can more than double orders without reigniting an expensive battle for customers, Swiggy needs Instamart to become 2.6 times its current size before the quick commerce business can breakeven. Annualised net order value (NOV) must climb from about Rs 23,400 crore to Rs 60,000 crore, while quarterly orders need to more than double from 11.5 crore to 25-30 crore.
All this while lifting contribution margin to 5%-6%, without bringing back deep discounts and heavy cash burn. The task is tougher because Blinkit is already nearly three times Instamart’s size and adjusted Ebitda-positive.
