You are what you invest in.
If you have a good quarterback, you pay him like a good quarterback and ensure that you have a guy to build around for the foreseeable future.
However, if you have a quarterback that’s, you know… fine, you don’t pay that guy great quarterback money. Don’t put a down payment on a trailer.
That’s the issue at hand today – which quarterbacks should get paid big money, and which quarterbacks are going to make teams regret giving them hefty pay days.
Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jacksonville Jaguars just paid Trevor Lawrence more money than the GDP of the city of Jacksonville, and it was money well spent on their end.
Overall, Lawrence’s extension is worth $275 million over five years with $142 million at signing. I did a full piece defending Lawrence just a few weeks ago, so forgive me if I sound like a broken record.
Trevor Lawrence is the litmus test for people who watch games and people who read box scores and let that be their ultimate deciding factor on how they view a player. His arm talent is one of the best in the NFL, and through the first 12 weeks of the season in 2023, he was top 10 in passing yards and EPA while also being PFF’s eighth-rated quarterback.
Unfortunately he got hurt, and that changed everything for the Jaguars’ season. Of his 14 interceptions in 2023, seven of them came in the final four games of the year, and three of them were thrown in one game against the Cleveland Browns – a game they still only lost by one score because Lawrence kept them in the game.
I’m not here to say Lawrence is a perfect quarterback – he isn’t. He tries to do too much sometimes, and needs to learn to just play for another down. But he also hasn’t had the luxury of all-world weapons like other quarterbacks we’ll get to, and his defense allowed every quarterback to light them up in 2023. The Jacksonville Jaguars are nothing without Lawrence – plain and simple. He is the one thing on that team that has kept them remotely competitive and relevant. He is absolutely deserving of his contract, and the Jaguars were smart to get ahead of it and get it done.
Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers
Jordan Love is already one of my favorite players to watch. He throws the ball with such a confident arrogance that makes it easy to see that he’s the guy in Green Bay for the long term.
The crazy part, too, is that he didn’t really find his consistent groove until around Week 11, yet he still managed to finish second in the NFL in touchdown passes. From Weeks 11-18, he was second in the league in EPA per play, third in adjusted EPA per play, third in success rate, second in CPOE, and second in EPA + CPOE composite. And he did all of that while throwing to the youngest group of weapons in the NFL.
Love already has a playoff win under his belt, and came very close to guiding the No. 7 seeded Packers to the NFC Championship Game. When you look at his ability to put the ball into any window he wants, and the fact that he knows he can, combined with his arm strength, specifically throwing across the field from the opposite hash, Love is undoubtedly worthy of a big-time extension.
With the Lawrence deal getting done, I would also expect this to come sooner rather than later. Love signed a one-year extension ahead of the 2023 season, but is set to be a free agent in 2025. The Packers shouldn’t play Russian Roulette with this. Sign your rising star quarterback to a big extension and build around him.
Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins
The Miami Dolphins cannot give Tua Tagovailoa $55 million per year.
And don’t worry, I can practically hear your fingers typing something along the lines of “How can you defend paying Lawrence but not Tua?” followed by about nine exclamation points and coming from an X account under the username of Tua2Tyreek305 – sound about right?
In terms of defending Lawrence over Tua, that’s a pretty easy task.
For starters, Lawrence hasn’t had Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle to throw the ball to. He’s had the likes of Zay Jones, Christian Kirk, and Calvin Ridley, who vastly underperformed from what the Jaguars expected when they acquired him in 2022. And while Kirk is a fine receiver, he isn’t sniffing the tier of Waddle or Hill.
Tua also isn’t the end all-be all for the Dolphins. Miami will try to run the ball down your throat to force you out of two-high. If they have sustained success on the ground with Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane, defenses have to load the box and go to single-high looks, which opens up the middle of the field for Waddle and Hill and the quick passing game to begin taking over.
Lawrence is basically tasked with running a dysfunctional retail store filled with employees that are always late, constantly quitting and needing replaced. Tua is running an assembly line. He does it well, but an assembly line is predictable and you can find a good number of guys who can run one.
Take this quote from an NFL defensive coordinator via Matt Verderame of Sports Illustrated:
“He’s a good player but will never be elite… Try to make him read things. He just throws it to spots a lot of the time. Keep changing the windows on him and he will struggle.”
I ultimately do think the Dolphins realize they have probably hit their ceiling with Tua, and will pursue other options. Another team will play Tua, though, there’s no doubt about it. My guess is it will be one of two teams – the Las Vegas Raiders or Seattle Seahawks. The Raiders because it would be such a Raiders move to sign a guy whose numbers look far better than the player himself, and then they’ll be left kicking themselves for another bad contract (hello Jimmy Garoppolo). The Seahawks make sense because offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb came to Seattle from the University of Washington where he was the offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach for Michael Penix, and there are a lot of similarities between Penix and Tua.
If you’re the Dolphins, there’s no reason to give Tua a massive deal. To hell with “Well, the market is the market.” Yes – for upper-tier, game-changing quarterbacks, of which Tua is not. He was 23rd last season in average depth of pass, and of all quarterbacks with at least 50 attempts last season, he faced the least amount of pressure, per Sports Info Solutions. He’s a one-dimensional quarterback who doesn’t create, and has yet to win a playoff game despite the all-world weapons at his disposal. If you’re a good team and your gameplan is “Make Tua beat us,” you’re probably in good shape.
Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers
Sticking with the “Is it the system or the quarterback” quarterbacks, here comes Brock Purdy.
I fall in a similar boat with Purdy that I do with Tua. Look at all the advantages that he has in terms of play caller, offensive weapons, and an amazing defense. He’s not asked to drive the car, he’s asked to be the cruise control that keeps the car going the speed at which the 49ers can go.
Now, I’ll say this about Purdy – he’s better than Tua. With Purdy, at least he can run around and make things happen when none of his reads are open. However, look at what a guy like Deebo Samuel has done to make Purdy’s numbers look much better than he is as a passer. Samuel’s average depth of target was 7.3 yards. His average yards per reception, though, were double that at over 14 yards. Of all receivers to average more than 14 yards per catch, Samuel’s depth of target was by far the lowest. He also has the benefit of just being able to turn around and give the ball to Christian McCaffrey, who has shown over the last two seasons why he is the best running back in football.
Purdy is one of those guys that has played well, but if you were to switch him and someone like C.J. Stroud, what do you think happens? The 49ers have a lot of decisions to make, Purdy being one of them within the next year.
If there is going to be a signing where a team says “Look, we love you but not for north of $55 million,” it would be the 49ers. And if anyone has proven they can find another quarterback and make things work, it’s Kyle Shanahan.
This will be the quarterback deal that really sets the tone for others in the future. Tua, yes, but Purdy has been to a Super Bowl and consecutive NFC Championship Games. If the 49ers extend him for something in the neighborhood of $45-47 million with incentives than can earn him more money, that could completely reset how teams attack their approach to contracts with certain types of quarterbacks. Will the 49ers pay him? Yes, I believe so. Will it be for $55 million or more? I’ll say no.
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
Oh, Dak. You poor fellow.
The Dallas Cowboys won the NFC East in 2023 and immediately got humiliated at home by the Packers and the aforementioned Love. Since then, they have done *checks notes* almost nothing to get better.
Dak’s deal isn’t done. CeeDee Lamb is holding out for an extension. Micah Parsons needs paid. The Cowboys are staring down the barrel, and I highly doubt all three guys are going to be on their payroll next season.
This is one of those cases similar to the Detroit Lions and Matthew Stafford where, yes the quarterback is good and you won’t find many that are better, but maybe it’s just best for both sides to go their separate ways.
If I’m putting myself in Prescott’s shoes, why would I want to remain in Dallas? Big money and no state income tax? That’s pretty nice. But from a football standpoint, the Cowboys look like a mighty ship that they know, internally, has a hole in it’s base and is slowly starting to sink. If I’m Dak Prescott, I’m jumping off that ship and going elsewhere.
Where? Well, this somewhat brings us full circle – the Dolphins. Miami has to pay a quarterback in the next year, theoretically. Sure, they could just tag Tua, but why play that game? We saw how it worked in the past with Washington and Kirk Cousins, you’d just be delaying the inevitable. If you’re going to pay a quarterback, pay a good one. It’ll all but certainly be above the price tag for Lawrence, which would be inching close to the $60 million per year mark, but assuming this is how it plays out, they will have fallen short again in the playoffs, and Tyreek Hill isn’t getting younger.
Take advantage of the guys you have now, and take a play out of the Rams’ playbook. Prescott gets a new start with tremendous weapons, and Mike McDaniel gets his metaphorical upgrade from Jared Goff to Matthew Stafford.
