Despite moving out of the relegation zone following the 1-1 draw with Brighton, Leeds United are still viewed as favourites to join Norwich and Watford in the Championship next season. Burnley and Everton in the positions above and below and both have a game-in-hand over Jesse Marsch’s side in the final week of the Premier League season.
Currently, Leeds don’t know what they will need from their trip to Brentford as their two relegation rivals are in action on Thursday evening. Everton host Crystal Palace at Goodison while Burnley travel to face Aston Villa just three days before the last day of the season.
The outcomes of those matches will definitely change the relegation odds but, at the moment, Leeds are being tipped to drop out of the top flight. According to sports forecasting website FiveThirtyEight, there is a 56% chance of the Whites being relegated alongside Norwich and Watford.
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Meanwhile, the other 44% is split between Burnley (35%) and Everton (9%). Should they both lose on Thursday evening, those percentages will vastly increase and Leeds would surely become outsiders to finish in 18h position.
However, on the flip side, victories for Burnley and Everton would give Marsch’s side a huge uphill task as they would need to beat Brentford and hope the Clarets are beaten by Newcastle. Frank Lampard’s side, while currently in the survival driving seat, will likely need a win against Crystal Palace in their game-in-hand as they face Arsenal at the Emirates on the final day.
Leeds’ fate may well rest on results elsewhere on Sunday, a situation the club wouldn’t have expected to be in earlier in the campaign. They have not been able to pull themselves too far away from the bottom three all season but at their highest position – after beating West Ham 3-2 in January - FiveThirtyEight gave the Whites just a 6% chance of relegation.
The probability of dropping into the Championship has fluctuated weekly since then, decreasing when Leeds have won but increasing when they have lost. Its final change of the season will come on Friday morning following Thursday evening’s action and it could be quite a dramatic change dependent on the outcomes at Goodison Park and Villa Park.
