The Suns’ road back to the NBA Finals has hit a significant speed bump. All-Star Devin Booker is expected to miss Games 3 and 4 of their first-round series against the Pelicans, reports ESPN. Booker’s hamstring injury “is believed to be mild” and that he could return before the end of the series. New Orleans tied the series at one game apiece after a win in Phoenix on Tuesday. Though Booker’s injury is significant—and the Pelicans are not a typical eight seed—the Suns don’t need to panic just yet.
Phoenix was 8–6 without Booker during the regular season. As impressive as the Suns were during the year—they won eight more games than any other team—their campaign was filled with injuries. Booker missed 14 games, Chris Paul missed 17 and Deandre Ayton was out for 24. Phoenix should be ready to play without one of its top players, because it’s a skill the team sharpened ahead of the postseason. Landry Shamet, Cam Payne, and Cameron Johnson—all usually options off the bench—each made at least a dozen starts this year.
Lineup-wise, Monty Williams has a few options. Payne would give them another ballhandler, Shamet a shooter, and Johnson a bigger, 3-and-D type. I would expect Williams to give Shamet a look in the starting lineup to see whether he can keep his bench rotation somewhat stable. Shamet played 12 minutes in Game 2 after 0 in Game 1, and he scored 5 points on 2-of-3 shooting. The fear with Shamet is that he can be targeted defensively, though the Suns boast four great defenders in their starting lineup who can help cover for him, not wholly unsimilar to Booker at times.
During the regular season, the Paul-Shamet–Mikal Bridges–Jae Crowder–Ayton lineup played 116 minutes together, posting a 7.6 net rating in that relatively small sample—including an elite 99.6 defensive efficiency. That’s a good sign for Phoenix, even if that group struggled to close Game 2.
As far as closing goes, Williams will still have Johnson, Payne, and even Torrey Craig as a defensive option. The Paul-Bridges-Crowder-Johnson-Ayton group played only 40 minutes together this season but sported a 35.6 net rating in that time.
Offensively, I expect the Suns to lean even more heavily on Paul. He was spectacular in Game 1 and had his moments in Game 2 despite a subpar shooting night from the field. In minutes Paul and Ayton shared the floor together in the regular season without Booker, the Suns had a 4.8 net rating, though the offense was significantly worse. The Paul-Ayton pick-and-roll remains a very good fall-back option, and Phoenix has the shooting to give them the proper space. Even if the Suns’ Spain pick-and-rolls aren’t as difficult to guard without Booker, all the wings have experience running that play.
And frankly, defense ended up being a bigger issue than scoring for Phoenix in Game 2. In the fourth quarter, the Suns posted a 124 offensive rating, more than enough to win. The defense, however, was atrocious. (In fact, the Suns’ worst offensive quarter was the third, and Booker played 7 minutes and 25 seconds in that one.) Losing Booker shouldn’t significantly affect what Phoenix is doing in crunch-time defensive possessions, and that was the biggest reason for the Suns’ downfall in Game 2. What Phoenix can truly no longer afford is failing to get back in transition, blown assignments and not fully committed closeouts.
Ultimately, losing Booker is no small deal. It’s not a disaster, either. The Suns can win without him if they find a way to slow down Brandon Ingram and CJ McCollum. Paul has created good offense with worse parts before, and having him run the show should be enough to generate good looks. If anything, Phoenix cannot rush Booker back and have his hamstring injury linger during what the team hopes is another Finals run. The Pelicans will certainly not be an easy out, but Phoenix is built to withstand this loss, at least in Round 1.
