More than 39 million people could die from antibiotic-resistant infections over the next 25 years, according to new research.
Deaths among children under five years old will continue to decline – halving in 2050 compared to 2022, according to the study.
However, they will be “outpaced” by increases in other age groups—particularly those aged 70 and older, who will see an increase of 146% by 2050, from 512,353 to 1,259,409.
The study, published in The Lancet, is the first global analysis of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) trends over time.
It reveals that more than one million people died each year as a result of AMR between 1990 and 2021.
The study, by the Global Research on Antimicrobial Resistance (GRAM) Project, also estimates 1.91 million people could potentially die as a direct result of AMR in 2050, an increase of almost 70% per year compared to 2022.
According to the study, the number of deaths in which AMR bacteria play a role will increase by almost 75%, from 4.71 million to 8.22 million per year over the same period.
Between 1990 and 2021, AMR deaths among children under five years old declined by 50%, while those among people aged 70 years and older increased by more than 80%.
Those trends are predicted to continue in the coming decades, with AMR deaths among children under five projected to halve by 2050 globally, as deaths among people 70 years and older more than double.
Researchers say their findings highlight a “vital need” for interventions that incorporate infection prevention, vaccination, minimizing inappropriate antibiotic use, and research into new antibiotics to mitigate the number of AMR deaths.
Study author Dr. Mohsen Naghavi, leader of the AMR Research Team at the Institute of Health Metrics (IHME), University of Washington in Seattle, said: “Antimicrobial medicines are one of the cornerstones of modern healthcare, and increasing resistance to them is a major cause for concern.
“These findings highlight that AMR has been a significant global health threat for decades and that this threat is growing.
“Understanding how trends in AMR deaths have changed over time, and how they are likely to shift in future, is vital to make informed decisions to help save lives.”
Already recognized as a major global health challenge, AMR—which occurs when bacteria or other pathogens change in ways that cause them to no longer respond to antimicrobials—is anticipated to worsen in the coming decades.
However, until now, no studies have assessed historical trends of AMR and provided in-depth forecasts of future global impacts.
The first GRAM study, published in 2022, found that global AMR-related deaths in 2019 were higher than those from HIV/AIDS or malaria, leading directly to 1.2 million deaths and playing a role in a further 4.95 million deaths.
Estimates for the new study were produced for 22 pathogens, 84 pathogen-drug combinations, and 11 infectious syndromes – including meningitis, bloodstream infections, and other infections – among people of all ages in 204 countries.
The estimates were based on 520 million individual records from a wide range of sources, including hospital data, death records, and antibiotic use data.
Study co-author Dr. Kevin Ikuta said: “The fall in deaths from sepsis and AMR among young children over the past three decades is an incredible achievement.
“However, these findings show that while infections have become less common in young children, they have become harder to treat when they occur.
“Further, the threat to older people from AMR will only increase as populations age.
“Now is the time to act to protect people around the world from the threat posed by AMR.”
The research estimates that AMR deaths will increase steadily in the coming decades based on current trends, with 1.91 million annual deaths directly due to AMR projected by 2050 – a 67.5% increase on the 1.14 million deaths in 2021.
By the middle of the century, AMR is also projected to play a role in a broader 8.22 million deaths – an increase of 74.5% on the 4.71 million associated deaths in 2021.
The study suggests that there will be “considerable differences” globally, with a 72% increase in deaths among people 70 years and older in high-income countries compared to a 234% increase in North Africa and the Middle East.
The study indicates that future deaths from AMR will be highest in South Asia – including India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh – where a total of 11.8 million deaths directly due to AMR are forecast between 2025 and 2050.
Study co-author Dr. Stein Emil Vollset of the Norwegian Institute of Public Health said: “There has been real progress in tackling AMR, particularly among young children, but our findings indicate more must be done to protect people from this growing global health threat.
“By 2050, resistant infections could be involved in some eight million deaths each year, either as the direct cause of death or as a contributing factor.”
He added: “To prevent this from becoming a deadly reality, we urgently need new strategies to decrease the risk of severe infections through vaccines, new drugs, improved healthcare, better access to existing antibiotics, and guidance on how to use them most effectively,”
Produced in association with SWNS Talker
