The title of last week’s picks column was “talking ourselves off the Jaguars and fading primetime Kirk Cousins.” Whoops!
Cousins wasn’t great, but did enough to beat the Patriots even on a day where his defense allowed Mac by-god Jones to throw for nearly 400 yards. Jacksonville, on the other hand, got out-gained by nearly 100 yards against the Baltimore Ravens, wisely opted to go for two late in a one-point game and was rewarded by the football gods with a win.
That dampered our hit rate, though Robert Zeglinski was able to rise above the muck and deliver an 11-5 week that tied him for the lead among our three-man panel. In response, I … am fading Kirk Cousins again.
In what is likely an overreaction to Mike White carving up a bad Chicago Bears team, I’ve got the New York Jets winning in Minneapolis this week. Otherwise, it’s a long slate of home underdogs in 50/50 games (or 60/40, in the case of Chiefs-Bengals). That means I’m probably looking down another .500-ish week — but at least it gives me something to talk about.
Here are our expert (“expert”) straight-up picks for Week 13:
| Game | Christian | Robert | Charles |
| Bills at Patriots | Bills | Bills | Bills |
| Broncos at Ravens | Ravens | Ravens | Ravens |
| Packers at Bears | Packers | Packers | Packers |
| Commanders at Giants | Giants | Commanders | Commanders |
| Jaguars at Lions | Lions | Jaguars | Lions |
| Jets at Vikings | Jets | Vikings | Vikings |
| Browns at Texans | Browns | Browns | Browns |
| Steelers at Falcons | Falcons | Falcons | Falcons |
| Titans at Eagles | Eagles | Eagles | Eagles |
| Dolphins at 49ers | 49ers | Dolphins | 49ers |
| Seahawks at Rams | Seahawks | Seahawks | Seahawks |
| Chiefs at Bengals | Bengals | Chiefs | Chiefs |
| Chargers at Raiders | Raiders | Raiders | Chargers |
| Colts at Cowboys | Cowboys | Cowboys | Cowboys |
| Saints at Buccaneers | Bucs | Bucs | Bucs |
| Last week: | 9-7 | 11-5 | 8-8 |
| Year to date: | 110-69-1 | 110-69-1 | 97-82-1 |
And here are those selections in a better-formatted screenshot of our actual picks sheet, which unfortunately struggles to translate to our editing software.
Easiest game to pick: Baltimore Ravens (-8) over the Denver Broncos
This was supposed to be a game with major playoff implications. Instead, it could be the impetus for firing Nathaniel Hackett after less than one season as head coach of the Denver Broncos. A broken Russell Wilson has to face a top 10 passing defense in what projects to be a rock fight — the sportsbook total has already dropped well under 40 points even though the Ravens have scored 27 in three of their last four games.
The Denver defense could trip Lamar Jackson and his cast of anonymous wideouts up, but the Broncos have been vulnerable on the ground (17th in DVOA) and liable to give up drive-saving runs to a quarterback who is averaging more than eight yards per scramble. That unit has been great, but finally showed signs of cracking under pressure in last week’s loss to Sam Darnold and the Carolina Panthers. Sunday could be the game that group collectively decides its sick of being let down by an offense that can’t average 15 points per game.
Last week: 1-0 (1.000)
Season to date: 6-6 (.500)
Hardest favorite to back: Green Bay Packers (-4.5) over the Chicago Bears
Aaron Rodgers says he’s healthy enough to play and OF COURSE he wants to, it’s a game against the franchise he’s told time and again he owns. The reigning MVP has only lost to his division rival once since 2015 and already has a 27-10 win over the Bears in 2022.
But that was the early-season Packers, who looked like a playoff team. They’ve only won once in their last seven games, losing to the New York Giants, New York Jets, Detroit Lions and Washington Commanders along the way. None of those teams are as bad as Chicago currently is, but the fact remains that Green Bay is thoroughly untrustable as a favorite.
Rodgers is hurt and may not play at full strength in a year where full strength has been responsible for one of the worst seasons of his career. Justin Fields may not play due to a shoulder injury, but he could be pushing for snaps thanks to the temptation of playing against a Packer defense that gave up 363 rushing yards to the Eagles last week — a team with a similarly built young dual threat quarterback. Even if he doesn’t, David Montgomery needed only 15 carries to run for 122 yards against the Pack in Week 2. That’d provide plenty of cover for Trevor Siemian to take shots downfield.
Ultimately, this is still a Packers-Bears matchup. Rodgers wants to play because he wants to continuing burying this fanbase under 10,000 metric yards of manure, even in the midst of a lost season. Fields is hurt and Darnell Mooney is out for the remainder of the year. That makes this a Green Bay pick, even if I don’t like it.
Last week: 1-0 (1.000)
Season to date: 6-5 (.545)
Upset pick of the week: New York Jets (+3) over the Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings are 9-2. The Jets are a team that will be starting Mike White on the road. This is not a logically sound pick from 10,000 feet.
But Minnesota is only a three-point favorite for a reason. Its defense has holes, especially against the pass where it ranks 27th in total DVOA. There are absolutely several units out there who can make Mike White pay for being Mike White, but the Vikings don’t appear to be one of them. New York, loaded with run-after-catch threats, will be able to cash in some big plays in Minneapolis.
Kirk Cousins has the playmakers to keep up, but he’ll be facing a difficult defense for the second week in a row. He was able to keep his airship afloat against the New England Patriots and now has to prove he can get it done against a Jets team that has steadily improved over the course of the season and allowed only one offensive touchdown in its last two games. Is Justin Jefferson about to do a bunch of “WELCOME TO THE NFL, ROOKIE” stuff to Sauce Gardner? Probably! But Gardner can win enough of those battles to save face and, more importantly, allow a merely competent offense to snatch a road win en route to a playoff bid.
Last week: 0-1 (.000)
Season to date: 2-10 (.167)
