This is likely to be the last party conference before the election, so it is the ideal time for Labour to reassure people it understands the scale of the toxic legacy it will inherit after 13 years of Tory rule. And, more importantly, that it has a programme to match this challenge.
Siren voices are advising Labour that all it has to do is say very little on policy – certainly nothing that would upset the editors of the Sun and Daily Mail – and instead just allow the Conservative party to implode.
Polls do confirm most people want to see the back of the Tories, and so the hope is that former Tory voters will be encouraged to vote for Keir Starmer because he won’t be doing anything too radical. Meanwhile the plea to Labour supporters is to vote in the hope that, once elected, he will be nothing but radical.
What seems to have been forgotten is what Harold Wilson described as a fundamental law of elections: they are won and lost by “differential abstention”. In other words, “by that feeling that it is just not worthwhile going down to the polling booth” because of complacency having seen the polls – and assuming one’s vote is pointless – or through disillusionment, because of the lack of difference between the parties. The idea being that who doesn’t vote is at least as important as who does.
The risk of Labour adopting a politics of marginal differences is that it could have a debilitating impact on the greatest advantage the party has, which is a loyal left-of-centre base, and an effective grassroots electoral machine led by its members.
After years of Tory austerity, being hit by the cost of living crisis, coping with run-down public services and becoming increasingly worried about the onrushing climate crisis, these supporters want to trust that the Labour leadership understands just how broken Britain is – and how dramatic a change is needed to improve their lives.
To gain and maintain that trust, Labour needs to palpably demonstrate at this party conference that it knows what the Tories have done to our country – and what’s needed to put it right.
This means being open and honest about the increase in day-to-day spending required to solve the crises in our public services and the capital investment needed to boost growth, fix our crumbling buildings and infrastructure and begin to address the housing crisis.
The NHS continues in crisis – from waiting lists to unmet care needs, from GP appointment delays to the mental health crisis. To return to 4% annual funding increases in the NHS (the historical average) would cost an additional £10bn a year. Getting down waiting lists is vital to helping people back to work and boosting growth.
In education, it would mean investing £21bn a year just to get spending back to 2010 levels. More modestly, reaching the OECD average would cost £5bn more a year. Investing in education is investing in future prosperity.
Overall, the scale of what is needed across our public services just to reverse austerity cuts and deliver modest expansions is likely to be in excess of £70bn extra in day-to-day spending. And Labour must also be making the case for far greater public infrastructure investment to match that of similar nations.
So far, the tax changes Labour has announced amount to a little over £5bn – and that has already been earmarked for additional spending on good policies like free breakfast clubs, mental health counselling in schools and NHS staff training.
Without further redistribution of wealth, the argument that growth will be capable of paying for the significant investment needed in our public services is just unrealistic. The average growth rate since the banking crash has been 1.05%; and growth this year is now forecast to be 0.4%. Very, very optimistically, even doubling this growth rate would bring in, at best, about £12.5bn – but growth on this scale requires a huge level of upfront investment, which in turn takes time to produce results.
Being honest about what an incoming Labour government will have to face up to and how it will respond isn’t just about winning the electoral war – but also about having to win the peace.
If Labour fails to be honest about the scale of the Tory legacy and fails to recognise the radicalism needed to tackle it, disillusionment will quickly set in, potentially laying the ground not just for the return of the Tories but the revival of the far right. Support built now will be essential not just for winning the election, but for maintaining a Labour government in office.
John McDonnell is Labour MP for Hayes and Harlington and a former shadow chancellor
