A giant chocolate fountain and a fight over an AFL stadium make headlines, but the serious debate in the Tasmanian election is over how to address entrenched problems in the country’s smallest state.
Politically, the question is whether Australia’s sole remaining Liberal government can survive an expanding crossbench expected to take votes from the major parties.
Here are some things worth knowing as Tasmanians go to the polls on Saturday.
What’s changing?
Every election promises change, but few guarantee it so clearly. Whatever happens, Tasmania’s lower house will grow by 40%, increasing from 25 to 35 MPs.
Under Tasmania’s Hare-Clark system, candidates are elected in five multi-member electorates – Bass, Braddon, Clark, Franklin and Lyons. Each currently has five MPs. That will now become seven.
Advocates for the expansion believe that, among other benefits, it should create a more representative democracy. It means a candidate needs just 12.5% of the vote – little more than 10,000 votes in most electorates – to become an MP.
The expansion coincides with polling suggesting support for the Liberal and Labor parties is falling. Several polls have put their combined support at less than 70% and possibly little more than 60%.
It suggests that, short of a major surprise, no party will win a majority and an expanded crossbench of Greens, independents and possibly debutant Jacqui Lambie Network members will have a significant say in how the state is run.
How did we get here?
An election wasn’t due until May 2025, but the Liberal premier, Jeremy Rockliff, went early, blaming a standoff with two conservative MPs, John Tucker and Lara Alexander, who quit the Liberal party to become independents 10 months ago and turned a majority government into a minority that struggled to control parliament.
The Liberals have been in power for a decade and are seeking a fourth term. They go to the polls as the state faces widely acknowledged crises in healthcare and housing, has a nationally underperforming education system and with the recommendations of a damning commission of inquiry into the state’s response to child sexual abuse yet to be acted on.
The government has been criticised for its lack of transparency – laws it introduced requiring the disclosure of political donations are the weakest in the country – and what opponents say is a lopsided deal with the AFL to build a stadium on the Hobart waterfront. Several senior members resigned last term, including Rockliff’s popular predecessor, Peter Gutwein.
The opposition leader, Rebecca White, is leading Labor to a third straight election. She had resigned following the 2021 loss, but quickly returned to the leadership when her replacement, David O’Byrne, stepped down after historic misconduct accusations were made public.
Political analysts say the state Labor branch has spent most of the term struggling to move on from factional fights that wrecked its campaign three years ago and prompted a national executive takeover that ended just as the election was called.
What happened in the campaign?
Plenty. The Liberals issued 270 media releases, averaging seven a day, while Labor put out 170. It has been such an avalanche that analysts say it’s hard to gauge how much of it has grabbed the public’s attention.
The Liberals’ campaign – launched on the Rockliff family farm at Sassafras, with the leader arriving on a tractor, shirt untucked and wearing Blundstones – has focused on the need for a “stable majority government”.
Its plan for its first 100 days of the next parliament includes 70 itemised commitments, many targeted at addressing the issues that all parties have identified as voters’ biggest concerns – cost of living, health and affordable housing. Critics argue the government could have introduced most of what it is promising in the last term and it is unclear why it hadn’t.
Unlike three years ago, when it lost time in arguments over the candidates it had preselected, Labor is widely seen as having run a disciplined campaign, pledging to reduce power bills and repair the health system.
White was declared a clear winner of a Sky News/Mercury debate with Rockliff in which the leaders answered questions from undecided voters, but polls continue to suggest Labor’s vote will struggle to reach 30%.
Analysts attribute this less to the campaign itself and more to the several years during which the public has not had a clear idea of what the party stands for. A potentially significant ALP announcement to build a new hospital in New Town, in Hobart’s north, was left until Tuesday of the final week of the campaign.
The Greens, led by Rosalie Woodruff, also focused on health and cost of living, and were the only party to release a substantial environment policy.
The Greens and some prominent independent candidates signed a pledge to end native forest logging, a step taken this year in Victoria and Western Australia but not backed by Tasmania’s major parties. Instead, the Liberals want to expand logging into 40,000 hectares of protected forests against the wishes of senior timber industry figures. It suggests the future of logging could be a significant issue in the next parliament.
What about chocolate towers and green devils?
No campaign is complete without a circus and the Liberals duly provided when Rockliff went full Willy Wonka and promised $12m to a help build the world’s largest chocolate foundation near the state’s famous Cadbury factory.
But the big side event came in the final week, when the campaign was overshadowed by the launch of the Tasmanian AFL team. The newly named Tasmania Devils quickly signed up 150,000 foundation members, far exceeding expectations.
What’s unclear is whether the strong support for a team translates into acquiescence over the Macquarie Point stadium demanded by the AFL in return for the state being given a licence to field a team from 2028. Until now, polls have suggested a majority of people do not want a tax-payer funded stadium.
The Liberals say the stadium will be built, but began the campaign promising to cap state funding for the development at $375m, with any shortfall to come from the private sector. Small problem: no potential investors have been named. And the Macquarie Point development still needs to be approved by parliament.
Labor says it backs the team but not a stadium, and that it will renegotiate the deal with the AFL if in government. The AFL says the team is contingent on the stadium.
Most potential crossbenchers are either sceptical or outright opposed to a state-funded football ground. The only thing that can be said with certainty is that it’s unclear how the issue will be resolved.
Who’s coming in?
Eric Abetz, for one. The former Coalition Senate leader and minister in the Howard and Abbott governments lost his seat in 2022 but is considered almost certain to win a state spot in Franklin, the state’s southernmost electorate.
The 66-year-old conservative has maintained a relatively low profile during the campaign, but it’s assumed he aims to play a central role – and possibly the top one – in future Liberal governments.
While Rockliff is a moderate on social and cultural issues, having supported the federal Indigenous voice to parliament and proposed a ban on LGBTQ+ “conversion therapy”, Abetz’s election would continue a rightwing shift in the Tasmanian Liberals’ parliamentary membership since the departure of Gutwein, his predecessor, Will Hodgman, and several senior ministers.
The other potential arrival of note is the Jacqui Lambie Network. The party is running without saying what it would do on most issues, and its candidates are not well known, but polls suggest they have a chance at the final seat in several electorates.
It potentially makes Lambie a key player in shaping the next parliament, though she won’t be part of it herself, and despite the public not having a clear idea of what her MPs would stand for.
What happens now?
The last parliament finished with 11 Liberals, eight Labor MPs, two Greens and four independents – the Clark MP Kristie Johnston, and three (Alexander, Tucker and O’Byrne) who were elected as major party MPs in 2021.
Predictions under the Hare-Clark system are particularly perilous and electoral analyst Kevin Bonham says he doesn’t make them, but he has aggregated published polls and cautiously estimated what it could mean for seats.
If correct, it suggests the next parliament could be something like: 15 Liberals, 10 Labor, four Greens, three Jacqui Lambies and three independents. It would be a parliament in which parties and MPs have to work together to pass legislation.
Uniquely, Tasmania maintains the tradition of an election night tally room and the leaders will each address the crowd at the Hotel Grand Chancellor on Saturday night. But with 167 candidates running across the five electorates, the final result may not be clear for days and possibly weeks.
