In June, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration warned that there is a 63% chance of a very strong El Niño developing before the end of 2026, potentially rivaling the most severe episodes since records began in 1950. The 1997-98 El Niño, one of the strongest on record, triggered severe floods and droughts across Africa, Latin America, North America, and Southeast Asia, resulting in an estimated 22,000 deaths and more than $36 billion in economic losses.
Other major El Niño episodes brought crop failures, devastating peatland fires, and prolonged droughts. The effects of weather disruptions ripple through regional supply chains, affecting everything from aviation and manufacturing to insurance and public health.
