SP+ Predict Boise State’s 2023 Football Record
How do the Broncos fare against their opponents?
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What do advance numbers say?
Boise State football is once again given a great chance to win the Mountain West title when looking at the advanced numbers, such as SP+
The Broncos come in at 62nd overall in that ranking which is the highest among the Mountain West.
Remember, there are three factors that determine SP+ from Bill Connelly.
1. Returning production. The returning production numbers are based on rosters and as much as possible to account for transfers and attrition. The combination of last year’s SP+ ratings and adjustments based on returning production make up about half of the projections formula.
2. Recent recruiting. This piece informs us of the caliber of a team’s potential replacements (and/or new stars) in the lineup. It is determined by the past few years of recruiting rankings in diminishing order (meaning the most recent class carries the most weight). Transfer into is being introuduced as well.
3. Recent history. Using a sliver of information from previous seasons (two to four years ago) gives us a good measure of overall program health. It stands to reason that a team that has played well for one year is less likely to duplicate that effort than a team that has been good for years on end (and vice versa). This is a minor piece of the puzzle — only about 15%.
2023 Boise State Football Schedule
Saturday, September 2 – at Washington (17: L)
Saturday, September 9 – vs. UCF (35: L)
Saturday, September 16 – vs. North Dakota (NR: W)
Friday, September 22 – at San Diego State (85: W)
Saturday, September 30 – at Memphis (70: W)
Saturday, October 7 – vs. San Jose State (97: W)
Saturday, October 14 – at Colorado State (118: W)
Saturday, October 28 – vs. Wyoming (92: W)
Saturday, November 4 – at Fresno State (68: W)
Saturday, November 11 – vs. New Mexico (132: W)
Saturday, November 18 – at Utah State (116: W)
Saturday, November 25 – vs. Air Force (81: W)
Going just off of SP+ the Broncos will be favored or considered better than 10 wins. That is about normal for Boise State as reaching double-digit wins is what fans expect.
Washington and UCF will be tough as well as Fresno State who is just six spots behind Boise State and the Broncos are on the road at Bulldogs Stadium.
