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Austin Schroeder

Soybeans Posting Monday Weakness as USDA Raises Carryout

Soybeans are down 9 to 13 cents so far as trader sift through the USDA report at midday. The cmdtyView national average Cash Bean price is 9 1/4 cents lower at $9.80 1/4. Soymeal futures are down $4.20-4.60, as Soy Oil futures are up 80 to 85 points. There were 33 deliveries issued against soybeans on Friday night, with 2 for January bean meal.

USDA’s FGIS tallied soybean export shipments at 1.529 MMT (56.21 mbu) during the week ending on January 8. That was the second largest total this MY, 55.4% larger than the week prior and 12.7% above the same week in last year. China was the top destination of 901,118 MT, with 126,235 MT headed to Mexico. Marketing year exports for 2025/26 are 17.934 MMT (659 mbu) since September 1, which is now 42.7% lower than the same period last year.  

 

Crop Production from this morning showed the NASS soybean yield at 53 bpa, which was unchanged from the November report. Acreage was slightly higher on the harvested side to 80.4 million acres. Production was just 9 mbu higher to 4.262 bbu.

WASDE data took that production adjustment into account, as USDA also adjusted exports down 60 mbu to 1.575 bbu and crush up 15 mbu to 2.57 bbu. That took the US ending stock number 60 mbu higher to 350 mbu, vs. estimates of 295 mbu.

Quarterly Grain Stocks data showed December 1 soybean stocks at 3.29 bbu. That was 190 mbu larger vs. last year and 40 mbu above analysts estimate of 3.25 bbu. 

AgRural estimates the Brazilian soybean crop at 0.6% harvested by last Thursday, slightly above the 0.3% pace to start last year. In their WASDE report this morning, USDA did raise the Brazilian soybean production 3 MMT to 178 MMT.

Jan 26 Soybeans  are at $10.36 1/4, down 12 1/4 cents,

Nearby Cash  is at $9.80 1/4, down 9 1/4 cents,

Mar 26 Soybeans  are at $10.53, down 9 1/2 cents,

May 26 Soybeans  are at $10.65 1/4, down 9 1/4 cents,

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