While parity is on the rise in women’s college basketball, upsets in the NCAA Tournament tend to happen much less than they do in the men’s game.
For example, we really haven’t seen a run in the women’s game where a low-seeded mid-major makes it all the way to the Final Four like we have on the men’s side in 2006 George Mason, 2011 VCU, 2013 Wichita State or 2018 Loyola Chicago. In the last decade, the only time a non-top-four seed has made the Final Four was No. 7 Washington in 2016.
We have, however, seen a 16-seed upset a No. 1 in women’s basketball, when Harvard beat Stanford in 1998. And last year, we saw No. 10 Creighton get to the Elite Eight, and double-digit seeds in Princeton, Belmont and Florida Gulf Coast win first round games.
So, upsets and Cinderellas are certainly possible in women’s college basketball, we’ve just historically seen less of them.
There’s a chance a few could make a run this season, based on their great defense, awesome 3-point shooting, an under-the-radar star, or their overlooked overall greatness.
Let’s take a look at a few Cinderella candidates on the women’s side.
East Carolina
The Pirates are in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2007, but this group coached by Kim McNeill shouldn’t be overlooked. The Pirates’ defense has the potential cause a lot of problems for not just for ECU’s first round opponent – No. 4 seed Texas – but for any opponents the Pirates might face if they can pull off an upset.
According to HerHoopStats, ECU ranks 25th in the nation in defensive rating (82.4), third in points allowed per play (0.65), 11th in 3-point shooting defense (25.8%) and third in turnovers forced per game (24.2). Simply put, the Pirates have the ability to muck a game up and force an opponent into a lot of mistakes.
And offensively, they’re armed with Danae McNeal, who averaged 17.6 points per-game. The Pirates are also 16th in the country in offensive rebounds, grabbing an average of 15 of their own misses per game.
Iona
There’s one big reason to keep an eye on Iona: the Gaels can absolutely shoot the lights out of the basketball. Iona is second in the country in 3-point shooting percentage, knocking down 40.1% of its shots from behind the arc.
Iona is also sixth in the nation in effective field goal percentage (54.8%), ninth in points per scoring attempt (1.12) and 31st in the nation in total 3-pointers made (246).
Kate Mager is Iona’s leading sharpshooter, making 3.2 deep shots per game at a 48.4% clip. She’s third in the nation in 3’s made this season with 103.
The Gaels’ first round matchup against Duke will be a real clash of styles as the Blue Devils are third in the nation in defensive rating (75.2).
Sacramento State
The Hornets should be feared because they are armed with Kahlaijah Dean, a fifth-year senior who is 13th in the nation in scoring with 21.1 points per game. Dean also averages 5.8 rebounds and 5.1 assists per game, doing a little bit of everything for the Big Sky champions.
Dean has scored at least 20 points in 14 games this season, and she’s shot better than 50% from the floor in 12 games. Dean is also a standout 3-point shooter, connecting on at least three shots from behind the arc in 15 games this season. No. 4 seed UCLA will have to account for her.
And as a team, the Hornets make an average of nine 3-pointers per game.
KAHLAIJAH. DEAN.
that's it. that's the tweet. @SacStateWBB x @KahlaijahD pic.twitter.com/OqdaXLwqMz
— Big Sky Conference (@BigSkyConf) March 7, 2023
South Dakota State
The Jackrabbits are the mid-major with perhaps the best overall resume in this tournament. They finished the season 28-5 and are 14th overall in HerHoopStats rating. They’re also sixth in field goal percentage (48%), eighth in points per scoring attempt (1.14) and fifth in points per play (0.96).
While South Dakota State won the Summit League, the Jackrabbits have proven they can play with anyone, anywhere. In their non-conference slate, South Dakota State beat tournament-bound Mississippi State and Louisville, and had close losses to Creighton and UCLA.
This is the seventh time South Dakota State has been to the NCAA Tournament in the past decade. The Jackrabbits made the Sweet 16 in 2019. They could advance that far again if Myah Selland plays well. She averages 15.7 points and 6.2 rebounds per game. The sixth-year forward dropped 25 points on Louisville earlier this year.
