The Federal Reserve decided to maintain interest rates steady, holding them within their target range of 3.5% to 3.75% during their most recent policy meeting on March 18. Any potential cuts in interest rates were rendered all but impossible due to the war in Iran, with its impact on energy prices and inflation spikes.
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Why Can’t Rates Be Cut?
Despite many Americans feeling overwhelmed by gas and energy costs, along with inflationary disruptions to their budgets, cutting rates could intensify the current financial atmosphere. By choosing to maintain the current interest rates, the Federal Reserve is remaining cautious while allowing that there may only be one rate cut this year and next.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in a statement on the decision that there would need to be a significant change in inflation numbers to consider another rate cut.
“If we don’t see that progress, you won’t see that rate cut.”
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How Will The Fed’s Decision Impact Social Security Checks?
Each year, the Social Security Administration (SSA) makes a cost of living adjustment (COLA) to Social Security benefits in order keep pace with such forces as interest rates and inflation. The COLA increase for 2026 was 2.8%, or approximately $56 per month.
The SSA determines its COLA year-over-year change based on inflation levels during the third quarter of the prior year — meaning that 2026’s COLA was determined by the inflation rates of July through September of 2025. Given that the Federal Reserve has steadfastly held interest rates steady, and that the geopolitical tumult that has driven them to do so shows no signs of abating, it’s quite likely that they will continue to hold rates steady from July to September of 2026 as well.
What does that mean for 2027 Social Security checks? Well, unless something drastic changes between now and September, it’s very like that interest rates and inflation will hold, and that the COLA rate for 2027 will be 2.8% once again.
Editor’s note on political coverage: GOBankingRates is nonpartisan and strives to cover all aspects of the economy objectively and present balanced reports on politically focused finance stories. You can find more coverage of this topic on GOBankingRates.com.
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This article originally appeared on GOBankingRates.com: Social Security COLA 2027: How This Week’s Fed Signal Shapes Your Future Checks
