THE SNP would command a majority at Holyrood and the Greens would return a record number of MSPs after a fresh Scottish parliament election, new polling has suggested.
Figures from polling firm Ipsos Mori show that pro-independence parties would return a combined 82 seats – 10 more than now – in a new Holyrood vote. This would give them 17 seats more than the 65 needed to hold a majority in the 129-seat Scottish parliament.
The SNP would return 67 MSPs, meaning they would have a majority in the chamber even without the Greens’ support, according to seat projections from Ballot Box Scotland.
The Scottish Greens would also return 15 MSPs, according to the projection, almost double the eight they won in the 2021 Holyrood vote.
For the constituency vote, the Ipsos poll results put the SNP on 50% of the vote, Labour on 24%, the Tories on 14%, the LibDems on 7%, and the Greens on 3%.
For the regional list vote, it suggested the SNP would win 43% of the vote, Labour 21%, the Tories 14%, the Greens 13%, the LibDems 6%, and Alba around 1%.
On the list vote, Labour’s rise of six points mirrored the Tories’ decline of six points, suggesting voters are switching between the two parties but largely voting along constitutional lines.
Projecting Ipsos 28 Nov - 5 Dec 22 into seats (changes vs 22 - 29 Nov 21 / vs 2021 election): SNP ~ 67 (-1 / +3) Labour ~ 27 (+9 / +5) Conservative ~ 15 (-9 / -16) Green ~ 15 (+1 /+7) Lib Dem ~ 5 (nc / +1) (Projection caveats: https://t.co/f88QQRwMpz) pic.twitter.com/JkII97Poco
— Ballot Box Scotland (@BallotBoxScot) December 7, 2022
Green MSP Ross Greer welcomed the figures, which would be a five-point jump on the party’s 2021 list result, suggesting it put his party on course to overtake the Scottish Conservatives.
Greer said: “After eighteen months in government, the Scottish Greens are recording record levels of support.
“That’s because we are delivering the changes which people and planet really need, whether it’s free bus travel for young people, an emergency rent freeze, preventing new coal mines north of the Border or boosting the wages of the lowest paid workers. This is what we’ve achieved within the limits of devolution.
“The public want politicians who will work every day to put their ideas into practice, rather than score cheap points and offer nothing but negativity. The rise of the Scottish Greens and continued decline in Conservative support show that quite clearly.”
The Ipsos poll also found that support for independence was at 56%, with don’t knows removed. Even with don't knows included, independence support was in the majority, with 53% of people backing leaving the Union.
The poll also had good news for the SNP's de facto referendum plan, suggesting that more than 50% of Scots would back the party in that scenario.
In November, Scotland Office minister John Lamont suggested that an outright SNP majority at Holyrood could pave the way to a second independence referendum.
