The monsoon is likely to set in over Kerala with a “slight delay” on June 4, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Tuesday. The usual onset date over Kerala is June 1, within a seven-day window.
The IMD in April forecast a “normal” monsoon during the June-September season, though at 96% of the Long Period Average (LPA), it is at the lowest end of what the agency categorises as “normal rainfall.”
The LPA represents the average monsoon rainfall over India of 89 cm. The major factor expected to cause diminished rains this year is the development of an El Nino, a cyclical phenomenon of warming in the Central Pacific that six in 10 years is linked to diminished rainfall in west, northwest and western parts of Central India. Since 2019, India has been under the influence of the converse ‘La Nina’ or a cooling in those regions, and therefore substantial monsoon rains.
