The Jacksonville Jaguars have a decision to make regarding outside linebacker Josh Allen.
After drafting the pass rusher seventh overall in 2019, the Jaguars got immediate results with Allen racking up 10.5 sacks and earning Pro Bowl honors as a rookie. But he hasn’t reached eight sacks in any season since.
Now, Allen is scheduled to become a free agent after the 2023 season, and the Jaguars seem to content to wait until after he plays out his rookie deal to decide his future with the franchise.
Should they, though?
Paying Allen sooner rather than later may be the more cost-effective approach to keep him in Jacksonville. It all depends on whether or not the Jaguars can envision a scenario where they let the 26-year-old pass rusher walk into free agency.
What would the Jaguars’ pass rush look without Allen?
Jacksonville is hopeful that 2022 No. 1 pick Travon Walker will develop into a headache for opposing offenses. The rest of the pass rushing options on the roster are long shots to become productive players, though.
The clear-cut best candidate is Yasir Abdullah, who was a sack machine in college despite being undersized. Early signs from Abdullah in training camp and preseason have given more reason to be optimistic about his future, but the odds are still stacked against him.
Double-digit sack artists drafted in later rounds are few and far between in the NFL. Nineteen players recorded at least 10 sacks in 2022 and 11 of them were first-round picks. Another eight were picked before the end of the fourth round. The New England Patriots’ Matthew Judon, a 2016 fifth-rounder, was the only exception.
There’s even less reason to feel encouraged about players on the Jaguars roster like K’Lavon Chaisson, who has three sacks in as many seasons, and Jordan Smith, who missed almost all of his first two years.
Barring a breakout season from at least one of those young pass rushers, the cupboard would be very bare in Jacksonville if Allen left.
Of course, the Jaguars could stock up on outside linebackers in the 2024 NFL draft. But considering the state of the roster, it doesn’t look like the team will be drafting talent in the top 10 any time soon. And it’s hard to imagine finding an upgrade from Allen on the free agent market who wouldn’t cost a fortune.
Allen will only cost more if he plays well in 2023
If the Jaguars plan to wait until 2024 to decide Allen’s future, it leaves the team in a weird place. Either Allen plays well enough to warrant an extension that’ll be much more expensive after a strong 2023, or Allen doesn’t live up to expectations and the Jaguars have a tough call to make.
Allen is a perennial team captain who was seventh in the NFL in pressures last season despite his relatively low sack total. With so many hurries and knockdowns, the numbers tell the story of a pass rusher who was much effective than seven sacks suggests and close to recording elite numbers.
But sacks pay the bills and a contract for Allen may be at its most reasonable price tag after he recorded only 17 sacks in the last three seasons.
Four years ago, the Jaguars signed linebacker Myles Jack to a massive extension a week before the start of the 2019 season. In October 2011, Jacksonville extended both Montell Owens and Michael Thomas midseason.
Allen’s too important of a player to allow to reach free agency and there’s no time like the present to get a deal done.
