ANALYSIS — Democrats haven’t won a Senate race in Tennessee since Al Gore was reelected in 1990, but they might need to win there next year to win the majority.
While midterm elections typically go poorly for the president’s party, that trend is more evident in the House — Democrats had a net gain of 41 seats in 2018 and 31 seats in 2006, while Republicans netted 63 seats in 2010. More recently, Democrats gained a Senate seat in 2022 when Joe Biden was in the White House and Republicans gained two seats in 2018 during Donald Trump’s first midterm.
This cycle, Republicans are at risk of losing their hold on Congress if Trump’s job approval rating doesn’t rebound, but the overall natural partisanship of states with Senate races on the 2026 ballot favors the GOP.
