SCOTS could enjoy the higher living standards of countries such as Denmark, Finland and Ireland under independence with the average household more than £10,000 better off, the First Minister is expected to say.
Humza Yousaf will highlight the “prize of independence” when he speaks at Glasgow University tomorrow in what is being billed as the first of a series of major economic speeches.
He is expected to say that the Brexit-based UK economy has failed people in Scotland and that UK-based political parties are offering no alternatives to a “failed Westminster economic model", while outlining how independence would raise productivity and living standards.
He will say that although it will not happen overnight, independence will mean Scotland can begin to start catching up on more prosperous countries such as Denmark, Ireland and Finland.
The First Minister will also draw comparisons between the SNP, Labour and the Tories – including on the EU and migration – ahead of the General Election expected this year, as well as releasing plans for industrial policy in an independent Scotland.
His speech comes after a similar event held by Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer last week, while Prime Minister Rishi Sunak told journalists he favoured the second half of the year for a new poll.
In the first speech, the First Minister is expected to draw heavily from a report published last month by think tank the Resolution Foundation.
The "Ending stagnation – The Economy 2030 Inquiry" report found that if the UK closed its income and inequality gaps to the same level as similar economies – namely Australia, Canada, France, Germany and the Netherlands – households would be £8300 better off.
The First Minister will say: “If we use the same analysis for countries that are similar to Scotland – such as Denmark, Ireland and Finland – the difference for the typical Scottish household would be even greater.
“They would be £10,200 better off. That is the prize of independence.
“Not to match the performance of those independent countries overnight, no-one is saying that, but to start catching up so Scotland’s level of prosperity becomes more normal, more like that of comparable nations. It is the UK that is the outlier.”
While Scotland has “extraordinary resources” and “key economic strengths”, Yousaf will say the UK economy is one of “low growth, low productivity and chronic inequality”.
He will also launch an attack on the two main Westminster parties, kicking off a year likely to be dominated by electioneering.
“Both Labour and the Conservatives agree that the UK should be out of the EU and the huge European single market, and they both want to cut vital inward migration,” he is expected to say.
“Those are just two examples which demonstrate that for the two main UK parties, Westminster political interests will always override Scottish economic interests.
“Keir Starmer’s inability to offer any alternative to the managed decline of the UK is an abdication of leadership.
“The SNP Scottish Government will ensure that Scotland, its economy and its people are not ignored by Westminster.”
The speeches, which are expected to cover areas including workers’ rights, inward investment, the business landscape and ownership, will supplement the independence papers in the Building a New Scotland series.
Started under Nicola Sturgeon, the papers are designed to form the prospectus for an independent Scotland.
Opposition politicians attacked Yousaf over the economy, with Scottish Labour economy spokesman Daniel Johnson said the country’s potential had been “held back by an SNP Government bereft of ideas or ambition”.
“Families don’t need fantasy economics from Humza Yousaf in the middle of a cost of living crisis, they need his government to get a grip on its waste and incompetence,” he added.
Scottish Tory finance spokeswoman Liz Smith said it “beggars belief” that the First Minister will “lecture people on economics” after she claimed his Government “created a £1.5 billion black hole in Scotland’s finances”.
