Michael Shermer has wagered $1,000 that extraterrestrial visitation, technology or biological life will not be confirmed by 31 December 2030, even as the Trump administration reviews a vast archive of unidentified anomalous phenomena records in the United States.
The bet pits Shermer, the founder and publisher of Skeptic magazine, against Harvard astrophysicist Avi Loeb, who chairs a new UAP Science Advisory Council formed in response to the Trump administration's directive on UAP records.
Under the published terms, at least two of three organisations , NASA, the National Science Foundation and the American Astronomical Society must affirm by 31 December 2030 that extraterrestrial intelligence has been discovered, including through an extraterrestrial technological object or alien biological life found on Earth.
The wager is recorded through the Long Now Foundation's Long Bets programme. The $1,000 stake will go to the Galileo Project Foundation regardless of which man wins.
Why the Shermer Extraterrestrials Bet Matters
The news came after President Donald Trump ordered US agencies to identify and release government files concerning UFOs, UAPs and extraterrestrial life. Six tranches of records have been released under the programme, with the latest published on 18 September.
The released material includes military and intelligence documents, infrared data, video and audio clips, FBI and NASA records, correspondence and artists' renderings. According to reports, its database of about 155,000 unique UAP-record pages from seven countries contained no definitive evidence that any object was of extraterrestrial origin.
The archive is large and contains numerous unresolved reports, but the released material has not established an extraterrestrial origin for any of the cases discussed.
The UAP Science Advisory Council was announced in June 2026 to provide scientific advice to the US government on UAP investigations. It advises a wider interagency UAP governance structure involving the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, the FBI and the Department of War.
The council's published roster includes retired Rear Adm. Tim Gallaudet, Stanford professor Garry Nolan, anthropologist Peter Skafish and Shermer, whose sceptical position is hardly a secret.
Shermer's published wager is more precise than the headline version suggests. It does not claim that life cannot exist elsewhere. It predicts that, by the end of 2030, at least two of three named scientific organisations will not affirm that extraterrestrial intelligence has been discovered in the forms specified by the wager.
Winning the bet would not prove humanity is alone. It would mean only that the standard required for institutional confirmation has not been met.
What the UAP Files Actually Show
The released records include several incidents that sound extraordinary when stripped of their limitations.
In October 2023, federal law-enforcement personnel investigating drone activity near sensitive sites in the western US reported seeing fast-moving lights converge into a bright orb. A Pentagon memorandum described agents observing 'orbs launching other orbs,' according to reports.
The account is notable because it was documented in a government record, but the record does not establish what the objects were. There is no publicly available evidence in the report that settles what the agents saw.
The files also include records from a 1949 Los Alamos conference examining unexplained green fireballs near nuclear research facilities. Physicist Edward Teller attended, but the conference did not establish a definitive explanation for the phenomena..
AARO's historical review of US government involvement in UAP investigations, covering material dating back to 1945, reached a more restrained conclusion. The office found no evidence that a government investigation, academic study or official review had confirmed a UAP as extraterrestrial technology.
It said most sightings involved ordinary objects, natural phenomena or misidentification, while some may have involved experimental human technology.
'AARO has found no verifiable evidence that any UAP sighting has represented extraterrestrial activity,' Tim Phillips, then AARO's acting director, said in a March 2024 Defence Department briefing.
Loeb has not argued that every unexplained sighting is alien. His position is that even a very small chance deserves serious investigation. Loeb has argued that even a very small possibility of extraterrestrial technology would justify serious investigation, because such a discovery would be extraordinary.
A Bet With a Very High Bar
Former AARO director Sean Kirkpatrick has criticised the council's creation and Loeb's appointment, arguing that the panel's composition suggests the administration is more interested in fringe theories than hard science. Kirkpatrick has also described the council as serving no useful purpose and criticised it as a potential waste of taxpayers' money.
Loeb and supporters of the new panel argue that inadequate sensors, missing data and decades of secrecy have made unusual cases harder to assess.
Both arguments reflect concerns about the limitations of the publicly available evidence. Some released videos lack the raw data needed to determine an object's distance, speed or movement reliably. Without that data, dramatic footage can become a Rorschach test for whoever is watching.
The council has said its work will focus on scientific analysis and higher-quality data; reproducible methods and independently scrutinised evidence would provide a basis for assessing its findings. The Shermer extraterrestrials bet, meanwhile, gives the disagreement a fixed deadline and a clearly defined test.
Until then, the public is left with a remarkable archive, a government determined to appear open and a collection of reports that remain unexplained. The files raise important questions, but the released material has not established that any of the cases has an extraterrestrial origin.
