It’s still kind of bizarre that the NFL hides its compensatory draft pick formula from the public eye, but Over The Cap’s Nick Korte comes closest each year to accurately projecting how these comp picks are awarded. And for his final projection for the 2023 draft, Korte has the New Orleans Saints receiving a single comp pick in the seventh round after losing free agents Terron Armstead and Marcus Williams last year.
Both of those players signed contracts that would have brought third- or fourth-round comp picks to New Orleans, but the Saints negated the losses by adding free agents Andy Dalton and Marcus Maye. As Korte explained it, he has the difference between those contracts resulting in a net value compensatory pick:
“This results from the Saints seeing two players, Terron Armstead and Marcus Williams, depart for high value contracts ($15.95M APY and $14M APY, for compensatory pick purposes), while signing two players, Marcus Maye and Andy Dalton, for lower valued contracts ($7.5M APY and $4M APY). Armstead are ranked #98 and #144, generating points of 1,943 and 1,840, while Maye and Dalton are ranked #297 and #436, generating points of 1,747 and 1,595. The net value resulting from the differences of those sums, 3,842 and 3,342, is 505 points, well above the 300 point threshold.”
That’s better than nothing, right? But it’s really tough to argue Dalton or Maye brought as much value to the Saints in 2022 as Armstead or Williams would have. Dalton’s shortcomings at quarterback cost the Saints some games, and Maye’s durability issues were persistent. It would be disappointing to see the Saints lose two high-end starters and get maybe the last pick in the draft in return.
Korte has missed the mark before. Last year he predicted the Saints would receive comp picks in rounds four and six, having lost free agents Trey Hendrickson and Sheldon Rankins a year earlier, but they ended up with a pair of third rounders instead. Maybe the NFL will view things differently again this year and give the Saints better picks than we’re expecting.
