An incredibly deep free agent safety class and a potentially depressed market for the position group could allow the Green Bay Packers to bring in not only one, but perhaps two impact additions.
According to Dianna Russini of The Athletic, many general managers are approaching free agency at the safety position as they have in previous years, with lower deals than what is anticipated by many, creating a “depressed market” for that position group. Russini adds that there will be a lot of one-year deals.
Those at the top of the market will still earn big pay-days, although perhaps not to the extent of what is being projected, but it’s those who don’t fit into that category, but could still make an impact somewhere, that may feel the effects of this down market the most.
The lack of potential spending among teams at safety won’t be because of a lack of talent. In fact, the opposite is true. This year’s free agent class is absolutely loaded at the safety position.
Justin Simmons, Jordan Poyer, Kameron Curl, Xavier McKinney, Geno Stone, Julian Blackmon, and Jordan Fuller are just a few of the available players.
From a salary cap standpoint, the Packers have $13.6 million in available cap space, according to Over the Cap, and have the ability to create north of $60 million in cap space this offseason, through various restructures, roster cuts, and in an extension for Kenny Clark.
Not every one of those cap creating levers is going to be pulled, as doing so, specifically with contract restructures, pushes additional cap charges to 2025 and beyond, potentially reducing the Packers’ salary cap flexibility in future years.
With that said, if the Packers want to make an impact addition, they have the means to do so and given how the safety market could unfold, that may mean making not only one key addition, but perhaps double-dipping.
“I think it just depends on the player,” said Gutekunst. “It depends on who that is and how he can impact our football team. I don’t think we’ll shy away from adding impact players if we have to push things down the road. We’d prefer not to do that, but at the same time, this is about winning and trying to win a championship, so if that’s something that makes sense, we’ll do it.”
Currently on the roster at safety for the Packers are Benny Sapp, Anthony Johnson, and Zayne Anderson. The strength of the upcoming draft class isn’t at the safety position either, so if the Packers are going to find some immediate help at a position that Jeff Hafley recognizes as quite important in his defense, then taking care of that need in free agency is going to be the prudent move for Brian Gutekunst.
Hafley’s Boston College defenses played a heavy-dose of Cover-1, leading the nation in percentage of snaps in that coverage during the 2021 and 2022 seasons, while finishing fifth in 2023. At the NFL level, I wouldn’t expect the Packers to play Cover-1 at that same rate of 40-plus percent of the time, but chances are it will be at a much higher clip than previously.
If that’s the case, the Packers need two specific types of safeties in Hafley’s defense: a post-safety, who can play the centerfield-like role deep, covering a lot of ground and handling a variety of responsibilities, along with a box safety to play closer to the line of scrimmage.
At the NFL Combine, Gutekunst said that, ideally, the two safety positions and the nickel cornerback would be “interchangeable” in this new defense.
“It really helps your defense to be multiple and flexible so teams can’t get a bead on what you’re doing,” Gutekunst said via Packers.com. “So, in a perfect world, quite frankly, between the two safeties and the nickel, those three guys almost need to be interchangeable completely.”
In addition to the safety market potentially being “depressed,” as Russini put it, she also mentioned that the linebacker and running back markets could play out similarly. Those also happen to be two position groups that the Packers will have to add to this offseason.
