As Russian battalions surround Kyiv, representatives meet for peace talks and sanctions are heaped on Moscow, the world is asking: What will happen next?
Will Putin back down? Will Russians turn against their leader? Will Ukraine negotiate peace?
Here, Andrew Wilson, Professor of Ukrainian Studies at University College London, and Hamish de Bretton-Gordon, chemical weapons expert and former commanding officer of the UK’s Joint Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear Regiment, answer your questions.
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What chance is there that the peace talks will bring a solution?
“Not a snowball’s chance in hell at the moment,” says Mr de Bretton-Gordon.
“Maybe if the West threatens a no-fly zone the Russians might think again about finding a peaceful solution, because without air superiority I don’t think Putin can take Kyiv.”
Prof Wilson is a little more upbeat, saying: “President Zelensky said he wasn’t expecting much, and given the military situation Russia is likely to demand the undeliverable.
“But at least they are talking. I expected angry exchanges and one of the parties quitting the talks.
“Ukraine has inflicted a lot of Russian casualties, almost five times the number in Syria.
“Talks also buy time, and with each day sanctions are doing more damage to the Russian economy.”
Could Ukraine conceivably accept any of Putin’s demands (like neutrality, handing over Crimea)?
Prof Wilson says: “It’s probably too late for Ukraine to concede demands Russia made before they invaded, like giving up their ambition to join Nato.
“It’s still possible they might accept declaring themselves neutral, but certainly not in the way Russia wants, by unarming themselves.”
Might Putin compromise on his aims, such as regime change and bringing Ukraine back into Russia’s sphere?
“He might have to in order to save face,” thinks Mr de Bretton-Gordon.
“Things are going badly, it could be the beginning of the end for Putin and that might just be enough to bring him to the table. It very much depends how the fight for Kyiv goes.”
Prof Wilson believes Putin might be willing to pull out of Ukraine if he gets Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk. “Russia has occupied a lot of territory, and there’s a possibility Putin could give that up in return for Ukraine recognising the self-proclaimed rebel republics in the Donbass.
“But that would be very tough for Ukraine to swallow. They’d also have to take it to the Ukrainian parliament and change the constitution, which needs a two-thirds majority. But I don’t see any other things as likely to satisfy Russia.”
What might happen if Russia surrounds and lays siege to Kyiv?
Mr de Bretton-Gordon says: “Putin’s plan is to encircle Kyiv like some medieval siege. If he follows what he did in Syria they will bombard the cites, hoping people will surrender. In Aleppo they didn’t surrender after four years, and the siege was finally broken by the use of chemical weapons.
“Chlorine barrel bombs were dropped which either killed people in their shelters of forced them above ground where they were killed or captured and that all happened on his watch.”
Prof Wilson thinks Putin won’t want to destroy Kyiv. “This isn’t the same as flattening Aleppo, or the Chechen capital Grozny. Putin believes Ukrainians and Russians are one people, and he’s been many times to Kyiv, including once in 2013 when he said Kyiv was the mother of all Russian cities.
“He won’t want Russians to see images of the destruction of Kyiv. A long-term siege is a possibility. And the Ukrainians lose the conventional war for Kyiv it will fight a guerrilla war, and the UK and others are already looking at how to arm them with small arms, anti tank missiles, even sniper equipment.”
Are there any circumstances whereby Nato might step in to help Ukraine defeat the Russian invaders?
Mr de Bretton-Gordon says: “At the moment it will be only providing military hardware and intelligence. But I expect if Putin starts using chemical and biological weapons NATO might wade in, and certainly Putin must believe this will be the case.”
“If there is some outrageous humanitarian war crime, who knows, that might change the terms of the debate,” says Prof Wilson. “But there is more we could do now apart from supplying arms to Ukraine, like restricting Russia’s naval movements by blockading the Azov Sea and Ukraine’s southwestern coast off Odessa, and possibly no-fly zones.”
Could the Russian people conceivably remove Putin?
Possibly, says Mr de Bretton-Gordon. “We must do all we can to let the Russian people know what atrocities are being conducted on their behalf.
“Unfortunately all the key opposition leaders like Alexei Navalny are in jail. The Russian state are painting a very different picture to what is really going on, but the message will be getting through.”
Is there a chance Putin’s generals might turn on him, and how might that play out?
Mr de Bretton-Gordon says: “Possible but unlikely. He is a dictator and has almost complete power. A bit like Stalin’s purges, anybody who opposes him has been got rid of.”
Prof Wilson says: “This is very much Putin’s war, and while some top officials might have their doubts it’s clear that no one has the right to question him.
“But there have been military mistakes, operational and tactical errors and casualties have been much, much higher than expected. But I think it will have to get a whole lot worse before there’s any pushback against Putin.”
Could sanctions on Russia force Putin to back down?
Prof Wilson believes so. “The combination of cutting Russia off from Swift and sanctioning the central bank means they can’t touch half their reserves, which are huge. They don’t have the ability to defend the ruble that they thought they would have, so a series of bank runs are a real possibility.
“Russia thinks it can ride out life as an economic pariah, but they were mistaken if they thought they had China’s support. China is more interested in profiting from the global economy and certainly doesn’t want to join them.
“It could get a lot worse for Russia in the coming days. It will be like pulling a brick across the table with elastic, you think nothing is going to happen then suddenly get hit in the face.”
What other sanctions could be used against him?
Mr de Bretton-Gordon says: “We need a total blanket - everything must be sanctioned. Every Russian ship, aeroplane, must be seized. We need to reduce Russia’s ability to manoeuvre.”
Prof Wilson believes what will hurt Russia the most is to end the world’s dependency on its oil and gas, but it’s a long term measure. “We’ve done a lot since Russia cut off oil and gas to Ukraine 13 years ago, and that’s the kind of time frame it takes to find alternatives.”
Any chance China might put pressure on Russia, and would Putin listen then?
Mr de Bretton-Gordon says: “We must put as must put as much pressure as possible on China but they are an autocratic state as well. If China turned against Putin he would likely be finished. We must also get India to be more vocal in their opposition to Putin.”
Prof Wilson says: “China and Russia isn’t a full strategic alliance in which the Chinese will do whatever the Russians want. Russia in many ways is a junior partner, and there would be a big change if China began to see collateral damage to itself economically and diplomatically because of what Russia is doing.”
Could present sanctions eventually cripple Russia’s war machine, and how long might that take?
“It take a very long time,” says Mr de Bretton-Gordon. “He’s got limitless fuel. But the point of weakness for Putin will be his people and soldiers. If he doesn’t pay them because of sanctions and they start getting heavy casualties their morale will drop. Morale is a very powerful sense and loss of it has bought down many an army.”
