Immediately after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, world oil prices jumped above US$100 per barrel, hitting US$130 for Brent crude on March 8. The prevailing fear was that substantial Russian supplies would be lost to the world market either through western sanctions or a voluntary decision by Moscow in retaliation to western support for Ukraine. This was especially worrying when the world was already struggling to secure enough additional oil to meet rapidly growing demand as the COVID restrictions began to ease.
The International Energy Agency (IEA), for example, predicted that “from April, three million barrels per day of Russian oil output could be shut in” – that’s about a third of the total. It feared that this could produce “the biggest supply crisis in decades”.
World oil prices (US$)
