Russell Wilson will be the latest quarterback to open the 2022 season against his former team when the Denver Broncos roll into Seattle to play the Seahawks on Monday night.
So far in Week 1, quarterbacks are 0-2 against their old teams after Baker Mayfield and the Panthers lost to the Browns and Joe Flacco’s Jets lost to the Ravens. However, Wilson’s Broncos go into Monday’s game as 6.5-point favorites. The circumstances couldn’t be more different, and that means a different outcome.
Even with there likely to be some growing pains as the Broncos adjust to a new coach and quarterback, I’m looking for them to win the game and cover with a score of around 24-16. That puts the game under the 44-point total with more than a field goal to spare.
Wilson is a nine-time Pro Bowl quarterback who Seattle parted from without a replacement at or near his level. You don’t subtract that caliber of player and not expect some regression, regression we saw first-hand when he was injured last season. Seattle went 1-2 in those games and saw a decline in offensive production.
While Geno Smith got a full offseason to prepare as Seattle’s starter this time around, I don’t expect a huge jump in the team’s production — especially not in Week 1. But I do expect a jump for Denver. Without Wilson last season, the Broncos finished with the same 7-10 record as the Seahawks. That was largely thanks to a tough defense that kept them in games. That defense will give Seattle trouble Monday, while Wilson and a solid running game led by the two-headed attack of Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams (a good bet for anytime touchdown scorer at +110) will do enough to help the Broncos cover.
For the “12s” of Seattle, that means Monday will be bittersweet. They’ll get one last glimpse of what Wilson used to do for their team, only it’ll be against them. And it’ll leave them wishing he never left.
