While so many transfer rumours never come to pass, is there any type with a lower hit rate than a mooted swap deal? Even then, can you think of many where both clubs were satisfied with their end of the trade?
Exhibit A: Manchester United and Arsenal exchanging Henrikh Mkhitaryan and Alexis Sanchez. Two good teams, two excellent players and two failed moves. If that’s the best example, perhaps swaps are best left alone.
But a deal of this nature involving Liverpool and Barcelona has recently been reported in Spain. Memphis Depay and Roberto Firmino are both in the final year of their current contracts and it has been claimed that each could join the other’s club to take the next step in their career.
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As the lack of previous player swaps illustrates, there’s every chance this dual move will not occur. There’s also a strong case it shouldn’t happen even if it turns out to be a realistic possibility. In terms of where the Reds are going rather than where they’ve been, an exchange of Depay and Firmino makes sense from their perspective though.
Liverpool’s No.9 is a club legend. Having 335 appearances, 101 goals and 70 assists ( per LFCHistory ) is evidence enough of that, even before considering the countless memorable moments he has provided and the trophies he has won. But times move on, and so do football teams.
The Reds signed Darwin Nunez in the summer and it’s hard to think of a more different forward than Firmino. The former Benfica man comes alive in the opposition penalty box but is otherwise rarely involved, the polar opposite of what the Brazilian provides.
We saw this writ large during Liverpool’s 2-1 defeat at Old Trafford. In a match in which Nunez would likely have started had he not been suspended, Firmino’s average position was in the centre circle, deeper than that of James Milner and level with Harvey Elliott. That would not have been the case for the Uruguayan.
While it is important for a manager to have a variety of attacking options, the reality is that the Reds’ team has moved on and is evolving past the need for Firmino on a regular basis. He is far from the first player to whom this has happened, and he won’t be the last.
And this is where Depay could enter the fray. You can find stories claiming Liverpool were interested in signing him going back as far as 2015, before Klopp even joined the club. Yet the Dutchman – who counts Virgil van Dijk and Gini Wijnaldum among his top five most frequent international teammates – opted to join United that summer.
Although that move didn’t work out, Depay reinvigorated his career at Lyon, enjoying three seasons in which he hit double figures in Ligue 1 for both non-penalty goals and assists ( per FBRef ). Arguably more interesting, at least from the Reds’ perspective, is what he has done over the last year with Barcelona.
At face value, 13 league goals (including four spot kicks) and two assists since the start of last season is a solid return at best. The analysts at Liverpool will be far more interested in his underlying data, which does prove interesting though. Per Statsbomb, three of the 10 attacking midfielders or wingers to whom Depay has been most statistically similar in the last 365 days are Luis Diaz, Sadio Mane and Mohamed Salah.
This immediately suggests the Barcelona man would be suitable for a Klopp side, but also that he could cover where they need cover. For all Firmino’s skills, he plays through the middle or he’s not in the team. You would not find him starting in the wide positions.
Diogo Jota could, and likely would if Diaz or Salah were unavailable, but he is primarily vying with Nunez for the central role. As unlikely as the swap deal is, getting a player who is two years younger and is more versatile in exchange for one who no longer fits the style of the team as strongly as he once did is an intriguing proposition. It should not be dismissed lightly.
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