France is headed into a second and final round of voting on July 7 after the far right came out ahead in a first round on Sunday, sending centrist and leftist parties scrambling to keep it from securing a majority. FRANCE 24 looks at some of the possibilities that lie ahead.
French voters face a decisive choice on July 7 in the run-off of snap parliamentary elections that could see the country’s first far-right government since the Nazi occupation during World War II or no majority emerging at all.
Official results suggest Marine Le Pen's anti-immigration, nationalist and eurosceptic National Rally party stands a good chance of winning the most seats in the lower house National Assembly for the first time but the outcome remains uncertain amid the complex voting system and political jockeying.
In Sunday’s first round, the National Rally and its allies arrived in first place with 33 percent of the vote. The New Popular Front – a hastily formed coalition aimed at defeating the far right that unites centre-left, greens and far left – arrived in second place with almost 28 percent, significantly ahead of President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist alliance with 20 percent.
Dozens of candidates who won at least 50% of Sunday’s vote were elected outright. All the other races head to a second round June 7 involving two or three top candidates.
Polling projections suggest the National Rally will have the most seats in the next National Assembly, but it is unclear whether it will get an absolute majority of 289 of the 577 seats.
Read moreLe Pen’s far-right party wins first round as Macron’s snap elections gamble backfires
Parties scramble to block far right
The French voting system is not proportionate to nationwide support for a party. Legislators are elected by district, and any candidate receiving more than 12.5 percent of the vote is eligible for the second round.
Those opposed to the far right are scrambling to keep it from getting an absolute majority. The left-wing coalition has said it will withdraw its candidates from districts where they finished in third place or lower to throw more support to candidates better placed to oppose the far right in that locale. Macron's centrist alliance also said some of its candidates would step down before the run-off to try to block the National Rally from power.
This tactic has worked in the past, when Le Pen's party and its predecessor, the National Front, were considered a political pariah by many. But after an aggressive rebranding and a "de-demonisation" campaign, Le Pen's party now has broader support across the country.
While France has one of the world’s biggest economies and is an important diplomatic and military power, many French voters are struggling with inflation and low incomes and a sense that they are being left behind by globalisation.
Le Pen’s party, which blames immigration for many of France's problems, has tapped into that voter frustration and built a nationwide support network, notably in small towns and farming communities that see Macron and the Paris political class as out of touch.
Cohabitation
If the National Rally or another political bloc gets a majority, Macron will be forced to appoint a prime minister belonging to that party or coalition.
In such a situation – called “cohabitation” in France – the government would implement policies that diverge from the president’s plan.
France’s Fifth Republic has experienced three cohabitations, the last one under conservative president Jacques Chirac, who had a Socialist prime minister in Lionel Jospin from 1997 to 2002.
The prime minister is accountable to the parliament, leads the government and introduces bills.
The president is weakened at home during cohabitation, but still holds some powers over foreign policy, European affairs and defense and is in charge of negotiating and ratifying international treaties.
The president is also the commander-in-chief of the country’s armed forces, and is the one holding the nuclear codes.
The National Assembly, the lower house, is the more powerful of France’s two houses of parliament. It has the final say in the lawmaking process over the Senate, which is dominated by conservatives.
Macron has a presidential mandate until 2027, and said he would not step down before the end of his term. But a weakened French president could complicate many issues on the world stage.
During previous cohabitations, defense and foreign policies were considered the informal “reserved field” of the president, who was usually able to find compromises with the prime minister to allow France to speak with one voice abroad.
Yet today, both the far-right and the leftist coalition’s views in these areas differ radically from Macron’s approach and would likely be a subject of tension during a potential cohabitation.
Far-right leader Jordan Bardella, who could becomes prime minister if his party wins a majority of seats, said that he would oppose sending French troops to Ukraine and would refuse French deliveries of long-range missiles and other weaponry capable of striking targets within Russia.
The president can name a prime minister from the parliamentary group with the most seats at the National Assembly even if they don't have an absolute majority – this was the case of Macron’s own centrist alliance since 2022.
Yet the National Rally already said it would reject such an option because it would mean a far-right government could be overthrown through a no-confidence vote if other political parties join together.
Another option would be to appoint “a government of experts” unaffiliated with political parties but which would still need to be accepted by a majority at the National Assembly. Such a government would likely deal mostly with day-to-day affairs rather than implementing major reforms.
If political talks take too long amid summer holidays and the July 26-August 11 Olympics in Paris, Macron’s centrist government could keep a transitional government pending further decisions.
(FRANCE 24 with AP)
