Markets remain fixated on earnings season. But I see a much more consequential threat quietly developing in the fixed-income market.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury bond (ZNU26) is currently staging a massive breakout, Wednesday’s bounce aside. That benchmark rate surged from 3.6% in September 2024 to over 4.6% as ofTuesday’s close. Crucially, this move is not being driven by Federal Reserve rate hikes, but by the bond market itself, relentlessly selling bonds, forcing yields higher, and imposing its will on equities.
