Rishi Sunak has been warned of more rebellions by increasingly “disaffected” Conservative MPs if he fails to improve the party’s dire poll numbers, as a new survey found the Tories trailing Labour by 18 points.
A Savanta ComRes poll for The Independent, one month on from Mr Sunak taking over from Liz Truss, shows Labour way out in front on 46 per cent support and the Tories languishing on just 28 per cent.
The very slight bounce Mr Sunak offered his party on becoming prime minister has now “flatlined”, according to experts who said Labour’s huge lead appeared to be a “new normal”.
Tory MPs on the right of the party warned that if poll numbers did not improve by the local elections in spring it would spark major unrest – and could even see a push for the return of “election winner” Boris Johnson.
Polling guru Professor John Curtice said it was clear that the autumn Budget had not resulted in “any real improvement” in Tory fortunes. “The Sunak bounce seems to have stopped. A Labour lead of this scale would result in a landslide majority at a general election,” he said.
The new Savanta ComRes survey, conducted after last week’s Budget, shows the Tories up two points and Labour down one from its previous poll. While the pollster found a five-point swing back to the Tories in the days after Mr Sunak entered No 10, there has been little change since.
“A poll bounce of some kind was inevitable because Liz Truss was such a disaster in the eye of voters, but it has now flatlined,” said Savanta ComRes’s political research director Chris Hopkins.
He added: “All the Conservatives’ economic credibility has disappeared, and there’s so little Sunak can do to get it back. Labour is entitled to feel optimistic that their large lead will continue amid so much economic gloom. For the time being it appears to have settled into a new normal.”
The Savanta expert also pointed out that Mr Sunak’s negative net favourability rating (-3) during his first month at No 10 compares badly with Boris Johnson, who enjoyed a positive rating (+15) during his first month in charge in 2019.
Mr Sunak faces brewing backbench revolts over housebuilding targets and the ban on onshore wind, suspicion over his post-Brexit plans, and unease over allegations of bullying faced by his deputy PM Dominic Raab.
Both Mr Johnson and Ms Truss have signed ex-minister Simon Clarke’s amendment seeking to overturn his de facto ban on onshore wind development, with Labour understood to support the move.
Despite Ms Truss’s disastrous mini-Budget, many of the MPs who had backed her growth agenda are still angry about the tax rises imposed by chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s autumn Budget.
One Tory MP on the right of the party told The Independent: “There’s never been much enthusiasm for [Mr Sunak] within the party. Support isn’t as strong as people think.”
The backbencher added: “If the polls don’t improve by the local elections, it’s going to dawn on people in the party that they haven’t got a winner. More MPs will get disaffected and fractious – he’ll be in trouble. There will be rebellion from people most at risk at the next election.”
Asked if it could mean yet another bid to change the party’s leader, the MP said: “If Boris resolves the [Partygate] inquiry, he will be the prince across the water. There’s every prospect he could come back, because he’s a winner.”
Hardline Brexit-backers in the European Research Group (ERG) remain suspicious of the PM following speculation that the government was considering ways to forge “Swiss-style” alignment with the EU to gain single market access.
Mr Sunak and Mr Hunt have been at pains to dismiss the idea of renegotiating with the EU for single market access. But the chancellor failed to deny he was the source of claims the government was interested in the Swiss approach.
One Tory MP on the ERG said it was a “worrying sign” of government thinking. “We will be watching very closely for any softening in the position,” they said.
However, Tory MP Bob Seely – one of 54 to have rebelled over the levelling-up bill by backing an amendment to drop strict housebuilding targets – insisted that Mr Sunak had managed to unify the party.
“Nobody serious in the party is saying anything other than we need to get behind our leader,” he told The Independent.
Mr Seely added: “I’ve got nothing but respect for him – if anyone can turn things around, he will turn it around. We have to give him time. The debates that will take place are not going to be pro or anti-Rishi, they are going to be big policy arguments.”
Dehenna Davison – star of the 2019 intake of “red wall” MPs – became the latest Tory to reveal that they would be standing down at the next election, following planned exits announced by Gary Streeter, Chloe Smith and William Wragg.
CCHQ is now braced for a mass exodus, with some predicting as many as 80 Tories may decide to call it quits amid the dire polling and bleak outlook for the 2024 general election.
One moderate MP, a Sunak backer, said many colleagues had already given up on the party winning the election – even if those with large majorities still hope to keep their seats. “The next election is probably gone,” they said.
“Some with narrow majorities may be burnishing CVs and decide to stand down. Some us who want to stay are thinking about how we shape the party after an election defeat,” the MP added – saying he wanted to fight for his seat and stop the party “lurching further to the right”.
Tory peer and polling expert Lord Hayward said it was “striking that younger MPs will be standing down – it suggests it might be slightly higher than the normal 30 or 40 retirements”.
Urging patience on a potential poll recovery, Lord Hayward said he would be “surprised to see the partly solidly above 30 per cent until well after Christmas – a recovery will be small steps rather than large leaps”.
The Savanta ComRes voting intention survey of 2,106 people was conducted between 18 and 20 November.
