Our resident handicapper knew the Washington Commanders were better than the +11 line against the Philadelphia Eagles suggested in Week 10. Maybe not “win by double-digits” better, as turned out to be the final margin, but his unwavering belief in Taylor Heinicke paid off.
That capped a 2-2 week where his late addition of Tennessee Titans -1 first quarter wound up costing him a profitable Sunday. That’s unacceptable for our guy, so he’s getting back to his roots in hopes of replicating the truly absurd hot streak that carried him through the 2022 NCAA Tournament up something like 70 units.
I was slapped in the face over the weekend by the same, obvious and simple facts of sports betting over and over again. Even my boy Christian D’Andrea asked me when I ran one of my potential NCAA picks by him on Saturday afternoon “you’re laying points on the road???” [Ed. note: This happened. It was an Iowa State bet. It did not end well]
Good handicapping takes discipline. I have released three picks that go against my system this year: 0 for 3. Laying points on the road (one outright loss and one non-cover) and playing a divisional game to go over the Las Vegas total. Good handicapping is also about learning from the mistakes that you make throughout the season. No more overs in the NFL and I will NOT be laying points on the road moving forward. After a break-even week, it’s time to make some money.
There are three plays that fit a very solid Scumbag System ™ and one from a respected handicapper who I trust. The first system has been put into play and won some units for us this year already. Teams must meet the following criteria to qualify; home underdog, coming off of a road game where they were underdogs and won outright. There are three teams that fit that system this week. I believe there have only been three or four times we’ve had that kind of selection all year.
Alright, we’re getting back to basics. Let’s see this week’s plays.
The Scumbag Lock of the Week, part I: Indianapolis Colts +7.5 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Play the system, take the home underdog. I doubt this number will hold here after how bad Philly looked on Monday Night Football [Ed. note: it was already down to 6.5 by Tuesday morning], but we will monitor it and make a decision if there is still value in the line we get.
The Scumbag Lock of the Week, part I!: Minnesota Vikings +2 vs. Dallas Cowboys
I am concerned that Minnesota is going to end up being a huge public dog. Here is a useful tip; monitor the line movement and you should be able to see if Vegas is taking a stance on either side.
If all the money comes in on Minnesota, but the line freezes … Vegas is backing the hot dog enthusiast himself, Mike McCarthy. If the line moves with the money, then they are trying to generate equal action and collect the juice.
The Scumbag Lock of the Week, part III: Kansas City Chiefs -6.5 at the Los Angeles Chargers
The final system team is the Arizona Cardinals. I will not be backing this team. I don’t back teams with quarterbacks that don’t want to play football [Ed. note: rough scene for Kyler Murray].
Instead, I will play my new system. Fade the team who played the San Francisco 49ers the week prior. San Fran’s physical attack beats up the opposition and their performance suffers the following week. This system is 6-0-1 this year with the Los Angeles Rams getting a push at Tampa Bay and the Chiefs earning a bye the week after destroying the Niners.
I’m doing it. Laying points on the road. In a Divisional game. I’m rolling with the system this week as I don’t see many more options.
I liked the Baltimore Ravens, but -12.5 vs. the Carolina Panthers leaves the backdoor cover wide open. I love the New England Patriots, but I love them every week because I’m a huge homer. My only other potential plays the Chicago Bears and Detroit Lions, but I just feel a lot safer backing a team like KC.
Scumbag locks last week: 2-2 (.500)
Scumbag locks year to date: 20-12-3 (.614)
My non-scumbag lock: Chicago Bears vs. Atlanta Falcons UNDER 50 points, New England Patriots -3 vs. the New York Jets, the Tennessee Titans +3 vs. the Green Bay Packers and Titans-Packers UNDER 42.5 points
The good news is I hit every one of my prop bet recommendations and leans last week. The bad news is that came at the expense of my game locks (0-2) and my straight-up picks (6-8) because the gambling gods, rightfully, understand I deserve nothing. What looked like a salvaged split was done in by the Bills’ collapse, but fortunately we’re still profitable for the year — just not as much so as my Scumbag friend.
I’m gonna make another potentially dumb bet in expecting two bad defenses to stay under 50 points in Bears-Falcons. Why? Neither side is good against the run and both sides use the run to establish their entire offense. That means a lot of running clock and a game that could be over in two hours and 45 minutes under the right circumstances. Chargers-Falcons had a similar feel and that game ended 20-17 after some truly Falcons shenanigans.
I’m taking the Patriots because it’s Bill Belichick, off a bye week, against a young quarterback who has thrown seven interceptions in three games against New England.
The betting public came back to the Packers’ side thanks to one big Aaron Rodgers game, but asking him to hit that second gear two weeks in a row — after an emotional win over his former head coach — is a tall task for an offense that’s been pretty bad in 2022. The Titans have a top 10 defense and are the league’s most efficient run-stoppers, which leaves Rodgers to do the heavy lifting with Christian Watson and Sammy Watkins serving as major players in his passing game.
On top of that, you’ve got Derrick Henry against a run defense that’s been Green Bay’s glaring defensive, non-Kevin King weakness for years. The Broncos contained him last week, but he’d run for 678 yards the five games that preceded it. He should be able to feast at Lambeau Thursday night.
Non-Scumbag locks last week: 0-1 (.000)
Non-Scumbag locks year to date: 11-8-1 (.575)
