It was sometime late on Sunday that contact was first established between New Delhi and Malleswaram. This neighbourhood in the north-western part of Bengaluru is where the Janata Dal (Secular) patriarch, HD Deve Gowda, lives. The Congress had reached out to him because by then, a day after voting on May 12, it had figured out that it was not going to return to power in Karnataka.
The exit polls were a divided house, a few suggesting a Congress victory or at least emerging as the single largest party, while some others pointed to a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) surge. Siddaramaiah had asked the party cadre to sleep peacefully over the weekend, assuring them that the Congress is coming back. But perhaps more aware to what had happened inside the privacy of the polling booth, the Congress High Command had decided to step in.
Siddaramaiah, whose allergy to Gowda and sons is the worst-kept secret in Bengaluru, was kept in the loop and asked not to object to efforts to hammer out a working relationship with the JD(S). This was important because Siddaramaiah and Rahul Gandhi had taken the regional party to the cleaners during the election campaign, accusing it of being the ‘B’ team of the BJP. Rahul Gandhi had expanded the JD(S) to say it is Janata Dal (Sangh Parivaar). Gowda was to tell Sharad Pawar that he was hurt by how the “young man” spoke about his party. Narendra Modi himself alluded to the undignified manner in which Gandhi was spoken about by Gowda.
Not that it was far from the truth, at least in select constituencies. In Chamundeshwari, where Siddaramaiah contested, the understanding between the JD(S) and BJP to transfer votes in order to defeat the CM was anything but under wraps. In other regions also, reports suggest a shift of the JD(S) vote to the BJP.
Much before the bid to retain Karnataka began, the Congress leadership had asked Siddaramaiah if it should try forming an alliance with the JD(S). Siddaramaiah shot down the idea, arguing that if the two parties got together, all the anti-Congress votes will go to the BJP while a three-cornered fight would mean they will get split between the BJP and the JD(S), helping the party.
Two, the Congress and JD(S) are principle rivals in 60-odd seats in southern Karnataka and any seat adjustment would lead to heartburn among ticket aspirants who would get left out. Three, Siddaramaiah’s personal animosity towards Gowda and Kumaraswamy came in the way of a pre-poll alliance. Gandhi did not push it once Siddaramaiah shot down the idea.
But the world had changed after Saturday. The Congress did not wish to be reduced to a PPP party, a jibe Modi had thrown at it on the campaign trail, stating that after a rout in Karnataka, the Congress will be a Punjab, Puducherry, Parivaar party.
Former energy minister and Congress moneybag DK Shivakumar had already been asked to keep a channel of communication open with Kumaraswamy. The two Vokkaliga leaders are good friends and it is well known that the two ensure a comfortable win for each other in their respective pocket boroughs. For instance, Shivakumar did not face a formidable JD(S) rival in Kanakapura and the gesture was reciprocated by Kumaraswamy in Ramanagara.
The initial plan on the table was to announce on Sunday itself that the Congress and the JD(S) would come together in the event of a hung Assembly. But another school of thought advised the leadership to go slow, arguing that if the BJP managed to go past the halfway mark on its own, the two parties would look foolish.
Once the numbers started crystallising and it became clear that the BJP would be so near and yet so far, Sonia Gandhi spoke to Gowda. Ghulam Nabi Azad and Ashok Gehlot, the two Congress veterans, had already been sent to Bengaluru with a one-line order: “Make the government happen.”
The call from Sonia was necessary to massage the former Prime Minister’s hurt ego. And he loved being in the enviable position of being both the Kingmaker and the King.
Gowda also had done his calculations. He feared the BJP will gobble up his party if he allied with it. Moreover, he risked alienating his Muslim base and making himself a pariah in the fraternity of secular Opposition parties. Mamata Banerjee and Mayawati, too, were nudging him to go with the Congress in return for CM’s post for Kumaraswamy. A weak Congress was perfect for Gowda, he could dictate terms to it. It would also help him win a handful of Lok Sabha seats next year if the alliance withstood a turbulent election year.
The initial Congress offer was to give outside support to the Kumaraswamy regime. Gowda shot it down over a ragi mudde lunch, insisting that the Congress too must be part of the power arrangement. The numbers in the Assembly — 78 for Congress and 38 for JD(S) — would mean the national party would get more Cabinet berths. The post of the deputy CM, possibly even two, to accommodate different community interests, and the Speaker’s post could go to the Congress.
Siddaramaiah, however, will have to be content being just an MLA.
But Kumaraswamy is also aware the BJP will try and break his party. The plan is therefore to send his legislators away to resorts in a neighbouring state. The Congress, too, is wary of BJP launching Operation Kamala Part 2, a repeat of 2008 when the Reddy brothers facilitated a majority for the Yeddyurappa regime by “acquiring” Opposition MLAs, getting them to resign and then making them contest on BJP tickets.
There is already talk of Congress lawmakers from Ballari being approached by the Reddy brothers to switch sides. Any legislator with skeletons in his cupboard is susceptible. Horse trading to form a stable government is the ultimate irony playing out in Karnataka.
The ball is in Governor Vajubhai Vala’s court. Will he invite BS Yeddyurappa as the leader of the single largest party or Kumaraswamy as the head of the post-poll alliance that has the numbers?
It is anyone’s guess how the pitch at the Raj Bhavan will play out. The Karnataka Political League is delicately poised at this stage with all eyes on Vala. He will have to reveal who has won the toss and will get to bat first at Vidhana Soudha.
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