In the months since the supreme court voted to overturn Roe v Wade last year, the effects of the court’s decision in Dobbs v Jackson Women’s Health Organization have become clear. Over a dozen states across the country have passed legislation limiting or outright banning access to abortions, severely restricting reproductive rights for millions of people and threatening to imprison abortion providers.
But as Republicans have pushed through these bills, voters have also taken every opportunity to rebuke them in elections – leading to defeats in midterms and emerging as one of the GOP’s largest vulnerabilities.
After initially celebrating victory in their nearly five-decade campaign to end the constitutional right to abortion, Republicans now find themselves scrambling to simultaneously lessen their electoral losses and defend unpopular anti-abortion policies. Reproductive rights are set to be a key issue in the general election next year, with implications from the presidential campaign all the way down the ballot. While the GOP has not stopped passing anti-abortion bills, including in South Carolina and North Carolina last month, it has begun to worry about the price that it is paying for them.
“As Republicans we need to read the room on this issue,” the South Carolina Republican representative Nancy Mace, who supports anti-abortion policies, said on ABC News in April. “We’re going to lose huge if we continue down this path of extremities.”
Polling after the Dobbs decision showed that a majority of Americans disapproved of the court overturning Roe, with a Pew Research Center survey from last July showing that nearly six in 10 adults opposed the ruling. Pew’s survey also showed a majority of Americans in the largely conservative states where abortion bans were set to take place also disapproved of the decision. A separate NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll from April this year found support for abortion access around an all-time high, and notably showed that about one-third of Republicans mostly supported abortion rights.
The electoral implications of Republicans’ post-Dobbs anti-abortion push began to reveal themselves early on, when heavily conservative Kansas voted no in a referendum last August on whether the state should remove abortion rights from its constitution.
“The vote in Kansas sends a decisive message that Americans are angry about the efforts to roll back their rights and won’t stand for it,” Sarah Stoesz, then the president of Planned Parenthood for the region, said after the vote.
Despite the warning from the Kansas contest, Republican leaders still believed they would capitalize on President Joe Biden’s low approval ratings and concern over inflation to sweep back into power in a “red wave” during midterm elections. That never materialized, and instead Republicans underperformed as an energized Democratic base came out to vote. Michigan Democrats flipped the state legislature for the first time in nearly 40 years, Pennsylvania Democrats secured victories against anti-abortion candidates and, ballot measures in five states, including Kentucky and Montana, all resulted in voters choosing to support abortion rights.
Following the midterms, Republican leaders realize that they have a problem. The Republican National Committee chairwoman, Ronna McDaniel, appeared on Fox News Sunday in April to discuss the issue, saying that abortion had played a major role in key swing states and that party candidates needed to face the issue “head on”.
“Many of our candidates across the board refused to talk about it, thinking, ‘Oh we can just talk about the economy and ignore this big issue,’ and they can’t,” McDaniel said.
But Republicans have struggled to find a consistent line on abortion, with lawmakers divided over what level of restrictions they would put on reproductive rights. Republican leaders’ opinions range from insisting on total abortion bans to cutting access off at 15 weeks of pregnancy to washing their hands of the issue and saying it is up to states to decide.
Presidential candidates have similarly found themselves caught between different factions of the party and voter interests. Donald Trump reportedly told allies that he views a federal abortion ban as a losing proposition for the election and his campaign spokesperson has said Trump believes bans should be left up to states, threatening a rift with evangelical voters that have been a large part of his base.
Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida, who is currently Trump’s most prominent challenger, has taken a harder line and signed a six-week abortion ban in April – causing one major Republican donor to halt his funding to DeSantis. Other candidates have vacillated over taking a specific stance, including Nikki Haley who last month refused to name the specific number of weeks into pregnancy she would limit abortion.
Influential and deep-pocketed Christian conservative groups have further complicated the dynamic, insisting that without Roe to stop them Republican politicians should pass strict abortion bans. Susan B Anthony Pro-Life America, a major anti-abortion non-profit and political organization, vowed to campaign against Trump if he would not support a 15-week abortion ban.
Meanwhile, Democrats have been centering abortion access in speeches and campaigns. Vice-President Kamala Harris told a crowd at Howard University that “this is a moment for us to stand and fight” in an April speech, while the Democratic senator Dick Durbin chaired a Senate judiciary committee hearing that same month titled “The Assault on Reproductive Rights in a Post-Dobbs America”.
Democrats also secured a huge victory in Wisconsin earlier this year when the liberal judge Janet Protasiewicz won a seat on the state supreme court. Protasiewicz, who openly discussed her personal support for abortion during the campaign, defeated a conservative opponent who had accepted $1m in campaign donations from an anti-abortion political action committee.
Protasiewicz’s win ended a 15-year conservative majority on the court, and could mean that liberal justices overrule an 1849 law banning abortion which went into effect in the state when Roe was overturned.
