Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz is looking to begin the path to holding his district's seat by winning his primary election on Tuesday.
His main challenger will be Navy veteran Aaron Dimmock, who, according to the only poll that appears in FiveThirtyEight's aggregator for the 1st district of Florida, has slim chances of pulling an upset.
Conducted by Fabrizio, Lee & Associates, it has Gaetz with 67% of the support compared to Dimmock's 20%. The study was commissioned by the incumbent's campaign.
However, Dimmock has a glimmer of hope in the fact that he is being supporter by Rep. Kevin McCarthy, seeking to exact revenge against Gaetz for spearheading the initiative that led to his ousting from the speakership of the House.
Florida Patriots PAC, a group tied to McCarthy's allies, has spent $3.5 million on ads against the incumbent, according to figures from ad-tracking firm AdImpact reported by NBC News.
The ads are mostly focusing on the ongoing Ethics Committee investigation into Gaetz over alleged drug use and sexual misconduct. A bipartisan panel said it's also examining whether the lawmaker "accepted improper gifts, dispensed special privileges and favors to individuals with whom he had a personal relationship, and sought to obstruct government investigations of his conduct." Gaetz has dismissed the investigation, calling it "frivolous."
Gaetz also has the support of former President Donald Trump, something he has boasted about during the campaign. One ad features an audio of Trump saying he is a "very good person and he's a very capable man." "You ever watch this guy on television? Like a machine. He's great. He loves Florida and he loves the country."
Florida Patriots PAC stopped spending in the race late last month, signaling their awareness about Dimmock's slim chances of winning. McCarthy also sought to influence the races of those involved in his ouster, but most won reelection, the only exception being House Freedom Caucus Chairman Bob Good of Virginia, who lost a close primary this summer.
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