Sometimes overshadowed by the fights for the White House and Senate, the House majority is on the line in 2024 as well. With Republicans defending a narrow majority, changes in individual races can have a considerable impact on the fight for control.
Looking at the races individually shows Republicans still have a narrow advantage to maintain their majority, but the presidential race hovers over the entire fight for the House. If the race for the White House is competitive, then the fight for the House should be a close, district-by-district battle. But if the presidential race turns into a lopsided affair, then the presidential winner will likely bring the House majority with them.
Democrats need a net gain of just five seats to reclaim the majority. That hurdle could lower to four seats if Democrats are able to win the Feb. 13 special election in New York’s 3rd District to replace expelled Republican George Santos. That race, which will pit Democratic former Rep. Tom Suozzi against Republican Nassau County legislator Mazi Melesa Pilip, continues to be rated a Toss-up.
