The Big Ten grew this past week by adding a pair of premier college football programs in Oregon and Washington.
With the additions of the Ducks and Huskies, the Big Ten will now be 18 teams starting in 2024. They’ll enter the league at the same time as USC and UCLA.
With there being plenty of excitement and talk around the new-looking Big Ten, I took a stab at power ranking the 18 teams based on the current state and long-term success within the newly expanded conference. These rankings are not only taking into effect how I envision the programs looking this upcoming season but also how I project they could finish in the first few years in the expanded league.
See where I slate Michigan State amongst the new Big Ten field below:
18
Northwestern
Northwestern is a mess right now. After firing longtime head coach Pat Fitzgerald amid a hazing scandal this offseason, the Wildcats will be hard-pressed to win more than two games this upcoming season. The long-term projection doesn’t look good for the Wildcats either as this will be a massive rebuild for whoever is tabbed as the permanent head coach following the 2023 season.
17
Rutgers
Rutgers has been a Big Ten bottom-feeder in football ever since they joined the league and nothing suggests that’ll be any different with the new additions. If anything, it’ll only make things harder as all four programs are above the Scarlet Knights in my rankings.
16
Indiana
There’s a strong chance Indiana will be opening the new Big Ten era with a new head coach in 2024. The Hoosiers have been a train wreck the past two seasons and projections suggest things won’t get much better for the Hoosiers in 2023. So the first few years in the new Big Ten could be rough for Indiana as they start a rebuild project.
15
Purdue
Is this too low for a team that has annually gone bowling in recent years? Maybe. But I’m also waiting to see how the Boilermakers look under new head coach Ryan Walters before having them any higher on this list. This upcoming fall should be telling about the long-term success of Purdue under Walters.
14
Maryland
Maryland is annually an average-at-best Big Ten program that really hasn’t proven to be much better than winning seven games. There’s nothing wrong with consistently making lower-tier bowl games (I personally would rather be bowling in the Quick Lane Bowl than not all…cough…cough) but nothing suggests they’ll ever be more than that. So that’s why they are as low as they are on this list.
13
UCLA
UCLA is the first of the new expansion teams to appear on my list. The Bruins have started to see some growth under Chip Kelly in recent years but is that sustainable in a more difficult league like the Big Ten? I’m not sold on that being the case — at least not initially as I anticipate some growing pains for UCLA in their first few years within the Big Ten.
12
Illinois
Illinois is building something under head coach Bret Bielema that I’m confident will be sustainable and consistent within the new Big Ten. But I envision there will be a ceiling for the Fighting Illini within the first few years of the expanded league that has them landing in the middle tier of the conference.
11
Minnesota
Minnesota has been one of the most consistent programs within the Big Ten over the past few years, reaching nine wins in each of the last three complete seasons. But the Golden Gophers have yet to break through and win the Big Ten West Division — so I have my reservations on the true long-term success under P.J. Fleck. Maybe he surprises me this year, but I’m not confident the Golden Gophers are a true upper-tier team in the Big Ten.
10
Nebraska
Nebraska being ahead of teams like Maryland, Illinois and Minnesota is purely based on the long-term success I believe they’ll experience under new head coach Matt Rhule. He’s experienced great success in turning around Temple and Baylor previously, and I’m confident he’ll do the same with the Cornhuskers.
9
Iowa
Conversely to my thoughts on Nebraska, I’m skeptical about the long-term forecast for Iowa. There’s a strong chance Kirk Ferentz will be retiring in the next few years and that means we will be entering a huge unknown for the Hawkeyes. I anticipate Iowa will have a strong season in 2023 but I’m not as certain about the long-term success and future of the Hawkeyes.
8
Michigan State
I’m still a firm believer in what Mel Tucker is building and if things go as planned then I’m expecting Michigan State to contend for a spot in the 12-team College Football Playoff by 2025 (maybe even 2024). That obviously may raise some eyebrows but that’s still my firm take on the Spartans under Tucker and why I have them ahead of Iowa in this list.
7
Washington
Washington is a lot like Michigan State to me — they have similar history and general program expectations. But Washington is poised to have a better year than the Spartans this year and should enter the new Big Ten with more momentum than Michigan State in 2024. So that’s why I give them the slight edge over our Spartans.
6
Wisconsin
Wisconsin has been extremely stable and consistent for the past two decades. That shouldn’t change in the newly expanded Big Ten, and I’d argue things could get even better under new head coach Luke Fickell. I expect big things for the Badgers moving forward.
5
Oregon
Oregon is a lot like Wisconsin in their ability to consistently win a lot of games but has made it over the hump in reaching the College Football Playoff before (unlike Wisconsin). So I expect Oregon to come into the Big Ten and contend for conference titles right away in 2024 and moving forward from there.
4
Penn State
The additions to the Big Ten will slightly alter where Penn State is annually amongst the league — sliding one spot lower than where I’d have them typically. The Nittany Lions, though, have the potential to eventually be atop a list like this with everything in place for Penn State to be a regular national championship contender.
3
USC
USC is historically one of the best programs in all of college football and I don’t anticipate that changing once they join the Big Ten. Lincoln Riley needs to figure out how to get at lease an average defense to go along with his incredible offenses to truly contend for a national championship. But I don’t have doubt that they’ll instantly be one of the contenders to win the Big Ten in 2024.
2
Michigan
Michigan has closed the gap at the top of this list after winning the Big Ten the last two years — but I’m still not ready to project they’ll be the regular kings of the league moving forward. The Wolverines could take the top spot next fall should they win the league again this year — but I need to see one more championship season from Michigan to put them ahead of Ohio State here.
1
Ohio State
When you think of Big Ten footall, you think of Ohio State. Or at least I do. As I just stated, Michigan has closed the gap and things could be different this time next year. But for now Ohio State will enter the 2024 season still as the Big Ten’s crown jewel.
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