Considering how tough it can be to anticipate a footballer's future success, the panel behind the Golden Boy award have done a pretty good job.
The award, handed out to the best male footballer under the age of 21 and playing in a top European League, has been in existence since 2003 and anticipated a number of truly great careers.
Some calls are easier than others, with the likes of Lionel Messi and Kylian Mbappe delivering plenty during their teenage years, while 2021 winner Pedri took the honours after showing his quality in the Barcelona first team and for Spain at the European Championships.
Ranking the 19 winners is also a challenge, not least because some of them are at the start of their careers while others have a range of achievements to look back on after hanging up their boots, but we've given it a go all the same.
In compiling this worst-to-best ranking, we have considered a number of factors, including trophies won, quality at their peak, and an all-round assessment of their careers.
With so many of the group still playing, the order we've landed on now is different from what we would have said 12 months ago and different from most assessments 12 or 24 months from now.
Debate in football is part of the fun, so let us know your ranking in the comments section below
19. Anderson
It might seem harsh to put a Champions League winner bottom of the list, but that simply speaks to the quality of the competition faced by Anderson.
The Brazilian won the award in 2008, just months after putting away his penalty in the European final at the Luzhniki, but injuries hampered his progress over the subsequent few years.
A Golden Boy award shows you have achieved plenty at a young age, but for Anderson that was sadly as good as things ever really got.
18. Alexandre Pato
Like Anderson, Pato's best years came as a youngster and he was never really able to hit the heights expected of him.
The Brazilian won 12 months after his compatriot, off the back of a 15-goal season with AC Milan, but he was never able to replicate those numbers in Italy despite remaining an important figure for the Rossoneri.
Pato has been a bit of a nomad in recent years, with stints in China, Spain, Brazil and a brief stint on loan at Chelsea, but playing in MLS at the age of 32 is unlikely to have been part of the plan.
17. Anthony Martial
Martial hasn't had a poor career by any stretch, but there's a sense the Frenchman has hit a wall compared to the expectations when he broke through at Manchester United.
That stirring debut against Liverpool is the moment which regularly gets brought up, but Martial showed genuine early signs of becoming a complete striker.
His omission from France's World Cup winning squad in 2018 stands out as the biggest disappointment, and at the age of 26 the Sevilla loanee wouldn't have wanted his most significant trophy to be the Europa League.
16. Renato Sanches
Rebato Sanches' career is one where people will look back after his retirement and end up very confused.
There were few complaints when a breakthrough tournament at Euro 2016 saw him claim the award ahead of the likes of Dele Alli and Marcus Rashford, but the next step only came after some setbacks.
The Portuguese midfielder must be one of only a handful of players with league titles in three different countries at the age of 24, but his next move could end up being a defining one after his success helping Lille beat Paris Saint-Germain to Ligue 1 last term.
15. Joao Felix
If we were basing this solely on the players' ceilings, Joao Felix would be a great deal higher, but it hasn't quite happened for this former Benfica man.
Joao Felix didn't choose to move for a nine-figure sum, but it's safe to say he hasn't yet justified the fee at Atletico Madrid despite the club retaining high hopes for him.
Come back in a few years and the 2019 winner might be comfortably in the top 10. But then again, he might end up dropping a few places.
14. Matthijs de Ligt
The only defender to be named Europe's Golden Boy, De Ligt immediately justified his selection by helping Ajax come within minutes of the 2019 Champions League final.
A big-money move to Juventus followed, as did an immediate league title, but an ability to take things up a level ensures he isn't any higher.
De Ligt's red card in the Netherlands' Euro 2020 elimination put the seal on a frustrating 2021, but the centre-back still has plenty of time to get back on track and the return of Max Allegri to Turin could help the 22-year-old in the long term.
13. Isco
Isco's recent struggles at Real Madrid shouldn't take away from the achievements of the early part of his career, both for the Spanish giants and at previous club Malaga.
You don't win four Champions League titles without having something about you, while there aren't too many players who can lay claim to an international hat-trick against Argentina.
The Spaniard came through a stacked longlist which also included the likes of David Alaba, Philippe Coutinho and Thibaut Courtois, as well as two later Golden Boy winners (more on them later), and at the time - and for a while after - it felt deserved.
12. Rafael van der Vaart
The first ever Golden Boy winner, Van der Vaart was honoured while part of an exciting Ajax squad which also featured Zlatan Ibrahimovic, Wesley Sneijder and Thomas Vermaelen, among others.
While it might be true that the Dutchman's best years came with less fancied teams, he still made his way to a World Cup final with the Netherlands and did his part in two seasons at Real Madrid.
With a century of international caps, and having provided great memories to plenty of fans, he can look back on an accomplished career.
11. Mario Balotelli
While Balotelli's late-career travels aren't necessarily the acts of someone still at the peak of his powers, the high points were very high for the Italian.
Multiple league titles in Italy and England have been matched at international level - especially in 2012, when he was key to the Azzurri making it all the way to the final - and he has often been unstoppable.
Still, the quality of Balotelli's best football has sometimes been betrayed by an inability to deliver that quality on demand. A bit more longevity might have been enough for a top-10 spot on this list, but alas.
10. Pedri
Pedri will almost certainly rise up the list over the course of his career, but for now we have to put him bang in the middle as we await his next big breakthrough.
At the age of 19, the Barcelona man already looks like a star, and the tutelage of former club captain Xavi will surely be a huge benefit for the youngster.
The big question mark, as with some others on this list, is his health. A 60-game year for Barca and Spain took its toll, with the midfielder spending a chunk of this season on the sidelines, but if he stays fit then the sky's the limit.
9. Erling Haaland
Haaland has a year on Pedri, and like his Golden Boy successor he will feel he has already established himself as a star of European football.
A record of better than a goal a game in Austria would have been tough to beat, but he's repeated the trick against tougher opposition with Borussia Dortmund and looks certain to reach an even higher plane.
Had he won more in his young career, he'd already be higher up the list, and most would put good money on him eventually reaching the top five.
8. Mario Gotze
Will Gotze be the highest former Dortmund player on this list forever? Probably not.
Is he the only man on this list to score the winner in a World Cup final? For now, yes, and that carries enough sway when coupled with his early achievements in the Bundesliga and Champions League.
The German was named Golden Boy in 2011, and nominated again in 2012, before taking Jurgen Klopp's Dortmund within 90 minutes of Champions League glory months later.
The subsequent challenges have come thanks to matters beyond his control, and nothing would please us more than seeing him turn things around at current club PSV Eindhoven.
7. Paul Pogba
Pogba's club career might have stagnated since returning to Manchester United, but that's not the case when it comes to international football.
The Frenchman put in one of the World Cup final performances in 2018 which will continue to be talked about for years, and for a while he looked ready to do it all again at Euro 2020 only for Les Bleus to throw it all away against Switzerland.
Throw in four successive Serie A titles with Juventus, and a run to the 2015 Champions League final, and his problems in Manchester seem even tougher to compute.
It may well be that, when we get the chance to look back on Pogba's career after his retirement, we'll decide he deserves to be much higher.
6. Raheem Sterling
If the barometer for Golden Boy success comes down to turning potential into achievements, then Sterling is right up there.
The Englishman was an exciting teenage winger at Liverpool when he won the award in 2014, having taken the Reds to within touching distance of the Premier League as part of a frightening front-line.
More than seven years later, and that exciting winger has become a top goalscorer, with five straight double-figure Premier League seasons and a vital contribution to England's Euro 2020 run.
After three Premier League titles and multiple domestic cups, all that's waiting at club level is the Champions League. Could that arrive this year? There's every chance.
5. Cesc Fabregas
A Champions League finalist at 19 and still playing in Europe 15 years later, Fabregas certainly wins the longevity prize, but even that downplays his huge achievements.
After spending the first half of his career starring for Arsenal and winning three straight international trophies with Spain, the second half has been about adding some more club trophies with Barcelona and Chelsea.
He wasn't simply along for the ride, either: Fabregas started the European Championship finals of 2008 and 2012, while his introduction from the bench in the 2010 World Cup final helped Spain get the job done.
The veteran midfielder might have begun winding things down at Monaco, but the maturity he added to his game after the raw ability shown as a teenager went beyond what many would have predicted.
4. Wayne Rooney
Speaking of longevity, Rooney's record-breaking feats for Manchester United and England ensured he retired a different player than the one who won the Golden Boy award in 2004.
Initially Rooney was all energy and excitement, thrilling fans with his displays for England at Euro 2004 and earning a big-money move to Manchester United.
It's the kind of switch which can overwhelm a player, but his career only went from strength to strength, with three Champions League finals in four years the highlight.
The shift has been emphasised by Rooney's seamless transition into management after retiring from football, and there's every chance he isn't the last man on this list to go down that path.
3. Kylian Mbappe
One might argue Mbappe doesn't deserve to be so high, given his relative youth, but the Frenchman has done more by the age of 23 than many will accomplish in an entire career.
It wasn't even a close contest between Mbappe and runner-up Ousmane Dembele in 2017, after a starring role in Monaco's surprise run to the Champions League semi-finals - with goals in four successive knockout legs - prompted a move to Paris Saint-Germain.
You're not meant to star in a World Cup final at 19 unless you're destined for the very top, and the same goes for his average of more than 30 goals a season in the French capital.
It is not unfair to call Mbappe the heir to Lionel Messi's crown as the world's best, with his performance against Real Madrid in the Champions League - outshining the Ballon d'Or winner - suggesting the baton will be passed not too long from now.
2. Sergio Aguero
Aguero's decade as a Manchester City player means his achievements feel harder to judge than those who have succeeded at multiple clubs, but the monotony of the Argentine's goalscoring exploits simply emphasised how impressive it all was.
What's more, without a 30-goal debut season in a new country - yes, including that goal - who knows whether City would have developed into the team they are now in the same way.
A return of 260 goals in 390 games is a phenomenal return for someone who was still growing when he won the award as an Atletico Madrid player in 2007, and that's before you consider his century for Atleti.
For a while you just knew Aguero would deliver. He had a seven season run in which he never scored fewer than 23 goals, with a World Cup final and back-to-back close calls in the Copa America thrown into the mix.
Sure, things didn't end how he would have hoped, but few strikers have had more impressive careers.
1. Lionel Messi
It couldn't be anyone else, could it?
Messi is the prime example of a Golden Boy winner impressing a great deal before winning the award but finding two, three or four extra gears after being honoured.
When Messi was named Golden Boy in 2005, he was an exciting wide forward on the verge of claiming a regular starting spot at Barcelona, but Ronaldinho and Samuel Eto'o were the real stars of the team.
More than 600 goals and three Champions League wins later, such a concept feels impossible to even comprehend.
Not only is Lionel Messi the best footballer to ever win the Golden Boy award, but it will take something incredibly special for anyone else to remove that crown in his lifetime.
