Afternoon summary
Downing Street has rejected suggestions that Keir Starmer received Taylor Swift tickets as a “thank you” after she was given taxpayer-funded police security while performing in London. (See 1.29pm.)
Campaigners urge government to launch consultation on full Lords reform, with citizens' assembly, as soon as possible
Democracy campaigners have argued that the government’s House of Lords reform bill being debated today does not go far enough.
In a joint statement, 10 democracy campaign groups have said that, although the bill getting rid of hereditary peers is a “laudable first step”, the government should launch a consultation on wider Lords reform as soon as possible. They say:
We’re calling on the government to deliver on its manifesto promise of a proper consultation on the future of the Lords, including via a representative citizens’ assembly, to let the people decide who should be holding politicians to account and making sure laws are sensible and fair.
Continuing a system of political appointees risks accusations of cronyism and conflicts of interest. We need a second chamber that makes the most of the views and experience of a much more representative group.
We call on the government to announce a timeline for the public consultation on wider Lords reform, and the means for doing it effectively, as soon as possible.
We believe that a citizens’ assembly as part of a national conversation would help ensure this public consultation would bring together people from all walks of life, to hear from experts, deliberate and make recommendations to be implemented by the government.
The groups that have signed the statement, sent to the Guardian, are: the Democracy Network, Unlock Democracy, Involve, Citizen Network, Community Organisers, the Sortition Foundation, Independent Constitutionalists UK, 38 Degrees, Politics for the Many and Compass.
In a separate move, almost 300,000 people have signed an online petition at Change.org saying the 26 Church of England bishops should be removed from the Lords.
Dowden says MPs should be 'cautious about rushing into change' as he opposes Labour's hereditary peers bill
Oliver Dowden, the shadow deputy PM, told MPs that the Conservatives were opposing the bill removing hereditary peers from the House of Lords because they believed in being “cautious about rushing into change”.
In his speech in the second reading debate, explaining why the opposition were against the bill (see 2.07pm), Dowden said:
The checks and balances of the Lords – its tried and tested conventions – work. The Lords does not claim to be a democratic chamber, and that is the key point, this elected house has primacy.
Now, of course, the British constitution does and should continue to evolve, but we should only fix what is broken and be cautious about rushing into change. Our evolution should start with questions of efficacy, not optics.
Just as with the Blair and Brown governments before, this government seems obsessed with change for change’s sake. We’ve seen it all before, rebranding spun to give the impression of progress.
He also accused Labour of being willing to tolerate MPs getting into the Commons on the basis of family links.
Now, one of the central arguments evinced by the paymaster general [Nick Thomas-Symonds, the Labour minister opening the debate] is that no one in parliament should be there by, quote, ‘an accident of birth’. Yet today’s Labour party reeks of the hereditary principle.
The elevation of the nepo babies of north London, the coronation of the red princes… the Falconers, the Kinnocks, the Benns, the Eagles, the Reeves – many of them distinguished members, but under Labour’s closed shop, it’s hereditary peers out, hereditary MPs in.
The Labour MPs Hamish Falconer, Stephen Kinnock and Hilary Benn are all the sons of former Labour cabinet ministers, while Angela and Maria Eagle, and Rachel and Ellie Reeves are sisters. They all became MPs by being selected in the normal way. Hereditary peers just inherit their titles when a parent, normally their father, dies. The ones who get into the House of Lords now do get elected in, by other peers, but only hereditary peers can stand, and so the competition is very limited.
Dowden also said in his speech that he did not expect to remain in the shadow cabinet after the new Tory leader is elected.
In his speech, Thomas-Symonds defended the bill. He said:
In the 21st century there should not be places in our parliament, making our laws, reserved for those born into certain families.
In fact, we are one of only two countries that still retain that hereditary element in our legislatures, a clear sign the time has come to see through this long overdue change.
And it’s a matter of principle for this government, committed to fairness and equality.
Updated
The Foreign Office has announced sanctions against three illegal settler outposts and four organisations that have supported and sponsored violence against communities in the West Bank. Commenting on the announcement, David Lammy, the foreign secretary, said:
When I went to the West Bank earlier this year, on one of my first trips as foreign secretary, I met with Palestinians whose communities have suffered horrific violence at the hands of Israeli settlers.
The inaction of the Israeli government has allowed an environment of impunity to flourish where settler violence has been allowed to increase unchecked. Settlers have shockingly even targeted schools and families with young children.
Today’s measures will help bring accountability to those who have supported and perpetrated such heinous abuses of human rights.
Cleaners, porters and other workers in several government departments are to strike in a dispute over pay and conditions, PA Media reports. PA says:
Members of the Public and Commercial Services union (PCS) will walk out for 14 days from 28 October.
The workers, employed by ISS and G4S, voted overwhelmingly for strike action.
The action will affect the Department for Business and Trade, the Department for Science, Innovation and Technology, and the Cabinet Office, all in London.
PCS general secretary Fran Heathcote said: “This escalation reflects the anger of our G4S and ISS members. They are particularly incensed by the insulting pay offers and the unacceptable fact that many receive no company sick pay.”
Ex-BoE governor Mervyn King urges Reeves to ignore Labour's 'irresponsible' manifesto pledge and reverse Tories' NI cuts
Rachel Reeves has been urged to abandon Labour’s manifesto promise and raise national insurance for workers in the budget – by her former boss at the Bank of England, Mervyn King.
In an article for the Independent, King says that it was “reckless” for the Tories to cut national insurance before the general election, that both main parties were “irresponsible” when they said they would not reverse those cuts and that it would be best for the government to put it back up.
King was governor of the Bank of England from 2003 to 2013, and in his article he recalls a conversation with Reeves at the bank when she worked there in her first job after university.
Jeremy Hunt, the Conservative chancellor, cut employees’ national insurance from 12% to 10% in his autumn statement last year, and then he cut it again to 8% in his spring budget before the election. Taken together, the two cuts are worth around £18bn in the current financial year.
In his article, King says:
Before the general election, both major parties were irresponsible in either making, or promising not to reverse, cuts in national insurance contributions. It was a reckless increase in the future national debt – an attempt to bribe voters with their children’s and grandchildren’s pocket money.
An honest approach would be to say that such a commitment now appears a mistake and to return national insurance contributions to their previous level. You might be surprised by how many citizens would accept such honesty; better to tackle the problem now and not a year or so before the next general election.
King also says that he accepts the case for higher government borrowing in the short term.
If you believe that the UK requires higher investment to overcome the perception that “nothing works any more” – and I do not disagree – then you should argue for the merits of that … even if it means higher borrowing for a while.
Reeves has signalled that in her budget she intends to keep the government’s debt rule (that it should be falling in the fifth year of the forecast) but change the definition of debt used for this purpose. In his article, King says the rule itself should be changed.
The current fiscal rule, that the ratio of debt to national income is projected to fall in the fifth year of the forecast horizon, makes little sense. It is Augustinian – make me fiscally stable… but not yet. But not even Saint Augustine believed in a five-year rolling horizon.
The problem with the current rule is that it is too loose – not too tight (do read the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee report on debt published last month). Your challenge is to justify a temporary Augustinian deviation from the objective of a falling debt to national income ratio, because of the need to finance higher investment without cutting day-to-day public spending.
Only a convincing and credible strategy for raising investment while achieving fiscal sustainability by the end of this parliament will help to reduce the upward pressure on long-term interest rates, resulting from higher borrowing.
King ends his article by calling a conversation with Reeves at the bank.
I remember your telling me one day that the reason you enjoyed working at the Bank of England was the opportunity to work with other very bright young people. Your generation is now in charge.
Be courageous, be bold, and ensure that the economic inheritance we leave to our grandchildren is one of which both they and we can be proud. One day, you will look back on your time as chancellor and you will want to remember the far-reaching changes you made – not the political compromises that others will urge on you.
Reeves may appreciate King’s advice, but she has repeatedly made it clear that she won’t abandon Labour’s pledge not to put up employees’ national insurance. Politicians who have to face the electorate tend to take manifesto promises more seriously than unelected officials like King.
Updated
Anneliese Dodds, the development minister, told MPs this afternoon that the situation in Gaza is “truly intolerable”.
In response to a Commons urgent question on Lebanon and Gaza, she said:
The situation in Lebanon is worsening by the day. Civilian casualties are mounting and more than a quarter of the Lebanese population has been displaced.
On the subject of humanitarian needs in Lebanon, I announced £10m of support to Lebanon to respond to the widespread lack of shelter and reduced access to water, hygiene and healthcare. This is in addition to the £5m we’ve already provided to Unicef.
It’s clear that a political solution consistent with [UN security council] resolution 1701 is the only way to restore the sovereignty, territorial integrity and stability of Lebanon.
This requires an immediate ceasefire between Lebanese Hezbollah and Israel now, and immediate negotiations to re-establish security and stability for the people living on either side of the Israeli-Lebanon border.
While the world turns its attention to Lebanon, we must not forget the situation for the people of Gaza. They are in a truly intolerable situation currently and winter will make them increasingly vulnerable, including to communicable disease.
All of Gaza’s population now faces the risk of famine. Access to basic services, safe drinking water, shelter, healthcare, is becoming harder by the day. We are gravely concerned by the situation in northern Gaza in particular – very little aid has entered northern Gaza since October 1.
The UQ was tabled by the Labour MP Andy McDonald who said that repeated calls on Israel to uphold their humanitarian obligations were having “no impact” and that “recognition of Palestine is a pre-requisite for peace and not a by-product of it”.
Updated
No 10 indicates it would not support new law to ban mobile phones in schools, arguing headteachers can do that already
As Jessica Elgot reports, the Labour MP Josh MacAlister is introducing a private member’s bill designed to limit the extent to which under-16s can access addictive social media content on their phones.
The bill has various components, and one of them would require schools in England to be mobile phone free zones.
At the Downing Street lobby briefing, the PM’s spokesperson indicated that the government would not back this aspect of the bill. He said:
Headteachers already have the power to ban phones in school and many have chosen to exercise this right. So we don’t have plans to legislate in that particular area.
Asked if the government thought the current law on schools and phones was adequate, the spokesperson said:
That is the government’s position on the question of banning phones in schools.
Reeves tells cabinet government will not 'turn around 14 years of decline in one year or one budget'
Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, told cabinet colleagues this morning that the government could not “turn around 14 years of decline in one year or one budget”. With the budget taking place two weeks tomorrow, Keir Starmer held a political cabinet this morning (a cabinet for party political discussion, not debate on government business), and the Labour party has sent out a readout saying Reeves had a difficult message for her follow ministers.
A Labour spokesperson said:
The prime minister said that the first Labour budget in 14 years would prioritise stabilising the economy, fixing the foundations, and growing our way to a better Britain. He added that prioritising growth is vital to break the country out of the low growth, high tax doom loop it has been stuck in for the past 14 years.
The chancellor updated the cabinet on preparations for the budget and the spending review, which she said is an opportunity to put the country on a firmer footing.
The chancellor highlighted the £22bn black hole inheritance from the previous government that needed to be filled just to keep public services standing still.
The chancellor said that the scale of inheritance meant there would have to be difficult decisions on spending, welfare, and tax – and that the long-term priority had to be unlocking private sector investment to drive economic growth.
The chancellor told cabinet the budget would focus on putting the public finances on a strong footing and being honest with the British people about the scale of the challenge.
The chancellor said the government could not turn around 14 years of decline in one year or one budget. However, the budget would deliver on the government’s priorities to protect working people, fix the NHS, and rebuild Britain.
MPs debate bill to remove hereditary peers from Lords, with Tories set to vote against
In the Commons MPs have just started debating the second reading of the House of Lords (hereditary peers) bill – the legislation removing the right of the remaining hereditary peers to stay in the Lords.
The Conservatives are going to vote against. They have set out their reasons is an amendment that says:
That this house declines to give a second reading to the House of Lords (hereditary peers) bill because it is not an acceptable or effective method of enacting major constitutional change, because it proposes a significant alteration to the composition of the House of Lords which should not be considered in isolation from other changes, having regard to the undertakings given by the then government in 1999, because it drip-feeds changes that hinder proper scrutiny of measures that could change the relationship between the two houses, because it risks unintended consequences, does not reflect the lack of political consensus on House of Lords reform and does not provide for full consultation and pre-legislative scrutiny which would give the opportunity to consider the case for overall reform, seek cross-party engagement on proposals, and review the implications of all proposals.
The SNP has also tabled an amendment saying the bill should not be passed because it would be better to abolish the House of Lords altogether but, unlike the Tory amendment, this one will not be put to a vote today.
Wes Streeting, the health secretary, has indicated the government will regularly update the data document published alongside the Darzi review into the state of the NHS, Rosie Anfilogoff reports. She writes:
In a report released last month, Lord Darzi, a leading surgeon and former Labour health minister, provided an assessment of the state of the health service, saying it was in a dire state. The report bolsters Streeting’s argument that the last Conservative goverment allowed the NHS to decline, and that reform is now needed.
Alongside the main 163-page report, Darzi published a technical annex, twice as long, containing more than 330 charts and tables, covering areas from mental health outcomes to life expectancy.
Speaking during health questions in the Commons, Layla Moran, the Lib Dem chair of the health committee, stressed the importance of the data, saying “what we measure is so often what we end up improving,” and called on Streeting to keep the “incredibly useful” baseline updated yearly.
Streeting welcomed Moran’s request, calling it a “great constructive challenge” and reiterating the Labour government’s commitment to transparency.
He went on: “We’re not going to get everything right, and sometimes we’re not going to make progress as fast as we’d like, but where that’s the case we’re never going to duck that, we’re never going to pretend things are better than they are, because the reason why we will succeed, where the previous government has failed, is we’re willing to face up to the challenges in the NHS, rather than pretend they don’t exist.”
Updated
No 10 rejects claims Starmer received Taylor Swift tickets as 'thank you' after singer got police escort
Downing Street has rejected suggestions that Keir Starmer received Taylor Swift tickets as a “thank you” after she was given taxpayer-funded police security while performing in London, PA Media reports. PA says:
No 10 would not say whether the prime minister was confident that perceptions of a conflict of interest had been avoided but insisted “operational decisions” were “ultimately” up to Scotland Yard and not the government.
Last week it emerged that London mayor Sadiq Khan and home secretary Yvette Cooper were involved in talks around the security for Swift’s sell-out summer shows at Wembley before the singer was granted a blue-light escort.
The Sun reported that she was given the motorbike convoy on the way to the stadium despite initial police reservations, with her mother Andrea Swift also negotiating arrangements directly with No 10 aide Sue Gray.
Asked today whether it was the prime minister’s view that there was no perception of a conflict of interest, his official spokesperson said: “Operational decisions are for the Met. That’s the bottom line.”
Downing Street cited the terror threat faced by Swift in Vienna, which had forced her to cancel gigs on the Austria leg of her Eras tour, as one of the reasons government was involved in security talks round her London shows.
Senior Labour politicians including the prime minister and Cooper have accepted free tickets to the singer’s concerts, which came under intense scrutiny in recent weeks amid a row over freebies given to ministers.
The PM announced he would cover the cost of around £6,000 worth of gifts and hospitality he received received since entering office following the donations backlash, as well as committing to changing ministerial hospitality to improve transparency.
Among the declarations he paid back were four tickets to see Swift at Wembley Stadium which were received on 20 August from UMG, the musician’s record label.
Asked whether No 10 could rule out Starmer having been given the tickets as a “thank you” after discussions between government and the force were followed by Swift getting security while in London, the spokesperson said: “I completely reject that characterisation because it’s ultimately up to the police to take operational decisions in relation to the security of these major events.”
A Met Police spokesperson said: “The Met is operationally independent. Our decision-making is based on a thorough assessment of threat, risk and harm and the circumstances of each case. It is our longstanding position that we don’t comment on the specific details of protective security arrangements.”
At the Downing Street lobby briefing the PM’s spokesperson declined to say whether the government is considering sanctioning two Israeli ministers, Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir. In an interview with the Today programme, David Cameron, the former foreign secretary, said the last government was considering sanctioning them because of their support for extremist settlers in the West Bank and their oppostion to aid convoys going into Gaza.
Asked if the new government is also considering sanctioning the two ministers, the spokesperson said:
As you would appreciate, I can’t get into any commentary around future sanctions designations.
As you know, the UK has already sanctioned a number of people responsible for settler violence in the West Bank and we will obviously continue to take action to challenge those who undermine a two-state solution.
Veteran card to be accepted as photo ID for voting, government says, while wider review of Tory policy underway
Military veterans will be able to use their veteran card as photographic ID when they vote, the government has announced.
The previous government introduced the veteran card, to enable veterans to show that they qualify for services and benefits offered to veterans, but there was criticism of the fact that it was not included in the list of photographic ID documents that prove someone is entitled to vote under another law introduced by the Tories.
Alex Norris, the minister for elections, has said that secondary legislation will be used to ensure that in future the veteran card will be acceptable ID. The change will be in force in time for the local elections in May next year.
A wider review of the photo ID rules is also underway. Critics claim that they are skewed in favour of older people (because of the cards deemed acceptable), unnecessary (because electoral fraud of this kind is rare anyway) and political motivated (because of claims they were introduced to reduce the chances of younger, left-inclined people voting).
In a news release, the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government said:
This government is also making our democracy stronger than it has ever been and the addition of the veteran card is only the first step in delivering on our commitments to encourage participation in our elections.
Keir Starmer spoke to Justin Trudeau, the Canadian PM, last night about the Canadian investigation into allegations that the Indian government has been working with gangsters to kill dissidents in Canada. In a readout of the call released this morning, Downing Street said:
The prime minister spoke to Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau yesterday evening.
They discussed recent developments regarding allegations under investigation in Canada. Both agreed on the importance of the rule of law.
They agreed to remain in close contact pending the conclusions of the investigation.
The issue is likely to come up again at the Commonwealth Heads of Government meeting (CHOGM) in Samoa next week.
Lib Dems urge government to rule out raising employers' NI in budget, saying community businesses need protecting
The Liberal Democrats are urging the government to rule out raising employers’ national insurance. In a statement issued after Keir Starmer’s interview this morning, Daisy Cooper, the Lib Dem Treasury spokesperson, said:
The chancellor needs to think again if the government is considering hiking taxes on small businesses, who have already suffered from eye-watering tax rises under the last Conservative government.
The burden of this budget should fall on the likes of big banks, social media giants and oil and gas firms, instead of our local community businesses. The chancellor should be protecting these smaller businesses, who are the backbone of our economy and the heartbeat of our communities.
Now is not the time to raise national insurance rates on our high streets, local businesses and dynamic entrepreneurs.
The government is facing an extra £100m bill for next year’s state pension increases following revised official figures published on Tuesday, Steve Webb, a former Lib Dem pensions minister, has said. PA Media says:
Under the triple lock guarantee, the state pension increases every April in line with whichever is the highest of earnings growth in the year from May to July of the previous year, CPI (consumer prices index) inflation in September of the previous year, or 2.5%.
With inflation running at more subdued levels, it is thought that wages will determine next year’s state pension increase.
Last month, Office for National Statistics (ONS) figures indicated that total pay had increased by 4.0% annually in the three months to July.
But when jobs data was released on Tuesday, the ONS had revised the figure up to 4.1%.
Webb said the additional 0.1 percentage point could add around £100m to the state pension bill under the triple lock formula.
Webb, who is now a partner at consultants LCP (Lane Clark & Peacock), explained:
A slightly higher rate of increase is welcome for pensioners, though will be an unwelcome £100m extra cost for the chancellor as she prepares her budget.
The rate of the new state pension will now be close to £12,000 per year, very near to the £12,570 tax-free personal allowance. This is likely to put extra pressure on the chancellor to take action on tax allowances in the coming years.
Tories double down on claim raising employers' NI would break Labour's manifesto promise
The Conservatives are claiming that a comment by Rachel Reeves from 2021 justifies their claim that raising employers’ national insurance would be a breach of Labour’s 2024 manifesto promise.
In a fresh statement released by CCHQ this morning after Keir Starmer’s interview, Laura Trott, the shadow chief secretary to the Treasury, said:
In 2021, the chancellor said increasing employer national insurance was a tax on ‘workers’. That’s why even in her own words it breaks Labour’s manifesto promise not to increase tax on working people.
In a Commons debate on 19 October 2021, Reeves said:
Despite all their election promises to cut national insurance contributions, [the Conservatives] are actually raising them against the strong advice of businesses and trade unions.
The Conservative government’s actions will make each new recruit more expensive and increase the costs to business. The decision to saddle employers and workers with the jobs tax takes money out of people’s pockets when our economic recovery is not yet established or secure and only adds to the pressure on businesses after a testing year and a half. When all other costs are going up—the costs of energy and of supplies—these tax rises are only hitting them harder.
As mentioned earlier, during the election Trott criticised Labour explicitly for not ruling out raising employers’ national insurance. (See 9.28am.)
Cameron rejects claim Tory leadership contest shows his modernisation project has been 'binned'
David Cameron has rejected the suggestion that the Tory leadership contest shows that his party modernisation project has been abandoned.
When Cameron became party leader in 2005, he was younger than other candidates, and past leaders, and he deliberately sought to modernise the Tories. Partly this was about changing its culture, but partly it was about adopting policies that appeared more “centrist”.
But now the two candidates left in the Tory leadership contest, Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick, are well to the right of Cameron. Unlike Cameron, they are both now pro-Brexit and anti-immigration, and neither of them has been very positive about his record in government.
But, in an interview on the Today programme, when it was put to him by Nick Robinson that his showed the Cameron modernisation projected had been “binned”, Cameron replied: “Not at all.”
He went on:
When you look at the makeup of the candidates that were running for the leadership, the idea that there would be British black and minority ethnic candidates running for the leadership of the party, having just had Britain’s first British Indian prime minister, would have been unthinkable when I became leader of the party in 2005.
So the change in the makeup of the party, quite apart from anything else, has definitely endured.
One of Cameron’s priorities as Tory leader was getting a more diverse group of candidates elected.
When it was put to him that the politics of the leadership candidates were very different to his, Cameron said he did not agree. He said it was important for the candidates to debate issues. They would have “good days and bad days”, he said. He said he would “stay out of” the contest, but support the winner.
Cameron claims he does not remember issuing f-word threat to Boris Johnson if he voted leave in 2016
David Cameron has claimed that he does not recall telling Boris Johnson he would fuck him up for ever if he backed leave in the 2016 referendum campaign.
Johnson makes the claim in his recently-published memoir, where he recalls telling Cameron that he was thinking of backing leave. Johnson writes:
‘If you do that,’ [Cameron] said – and these were his exact words – ‘I will fuck you up for ever.’
Johnson implies the threat carried some weight (although not enought to make him change his mind). In his memoir he goes on:
I had to admit that the threat sounded serious. Did I want to be fucked up? For ever? By a prime minister equipped with all the fucking-up tools available to a modern government, and thousands of fucker-uppers just waiting to do his bidding?
In an interview with Times Radio this morning, asked about Johnson’s account, Cameron replied:
I find that hard to believe.
What I do remember saying is, Boris, you’ve never backed Britain leaving the EU before, you’ve always said, let’s reform it, let’s change it. I said, why back it now when we got a better deal? You might not like my deal. You might think you can do better when you become prime minister, as you probably will in a few years time. But don’t suddenly back something you’ve never backed before.
That was the argument I remember having.
And I don’t remember any language any fruitier than that. But you know, memories, recollections differ, as they say.
Cameron also said it was “a spirited conversation”.
This is a classic non-denial denial. And, in fact, it is not even hard to believe that Cameron did threaten Johnson like this using the f-word. Although mostly genial in public, as PM Cameron was well known for having a temper, and his command of Anglo-Saxon was impressive.
Keir Starmer has has welcomed private investment of £550m to make it easier for people to find a home, PA Media reports. PA says:
Schroders, Man Group and Resonance announced new impact investment funds on Tuesday – pots of money that aim to create social or environmental impact.
These will help to address directly the shortage of homes by supporting the building of tens of thousands of new homes across the UK, the Treasury said.
Speaking on BBC Breakfast this morning, Starmer said:
We’ve said as a government we’re going to fix the foundations, rebuild our country, and expressly saying ‘now is the time to back us’.
Companies and investors are coming in today saying ‘here’s half a billion pounds’. We want to raise that, by the way, I want that to be up over £1bn before too long.
David Cameron says he was planning sanctions against two Israeli ministers
David Cameron, the former prime minister and former foreign secretary, has revealed he had been planning to impose sanctions on two extremist members of the Israeli government over their support for violent settlers and calls to block aid entering Gaza, Patrick Wintour reports.
Would raising employers' national insurance break promise in Labour's manifesto?
The Conservatives say raising employers’ national insurance contributions (NICs) would break a Labour manifesto promise. (See 8.24am.) Keir Starmer says it wouldn’t. (See 9.12am.) Who’s right?
Starmer says Labour’s manifesto was “very clear”. It says:
Labour will not increase taxes on working people, which is why we will not increase national insurance, the basic, higher, or additional rates of income tax, or VAT.
This is not “very clear” about the distinction between employees’ NICs and employers’. If anything, it is the opposite – intentionally ambiguous.
But, during the election campaign, the Tories repeatedly challenged Labour politicians to explicity rule out increasing employers’ NICs – and Labour shadow ministers repeatedly refused to give that commitment. Instead, they just stuck to the wording in the manifesto.
As a result, CCHQ repeatedly put out press releases during the campaign asserting as fact that Labour did intend to raise various taxes, including employers’ national insurance. For example, on 14 June it released one with the heading “Labour’s 18 tax rises” that started:
Laura Trott, chief secretary to the Treasury, has laid out a raft of new taxes Britain will face under a Labour government.
Trott outlined the 18 new tax rises Labour will hit the country with - everything from your home to your car and from your work to your pension.
The press released then listed 18 tax rises that it said the Tories had ruled out but that Labour hadn’t, including “extending national insurance to employer pension contributions” and “increasing employers’ national insurance (the ‘jobs tax’)”.
This is the same Trott who, having told voters during the campaign that Labour’s policy platform involved an implicit admission that employers’ NICs would go up, is now saying Labour’s promise in the campaign was the opposite. (See 8.24am.) The Conservatives are being opportunist and inconsistent.
UPDATE: At a press conference during the election campaign Trott also made a point of specifically highlighting Labour’s decision not to rule out raising employers’ national insurance. She said:
[Labour] also matched us on on income tax, and not raising employee national insurance. But that is where they have very conspicuously stopped. We openly challenge Labour to match the other tax guarantees in our manifesto. Their response? Silence.
Updated
What Starmer said about Labour not promising not to raise employers' national insurance
This is what Keir Starmer said when Henry Zeffman asked him if Labour’s manifesto ruled out increasing any rate of national insurance, or if it was just ruling out increasing the employees’ rate.
Starmer replied:
We were very clear the manifesto that we wouldn’t be increasing tax on working people. We expressly said that that was income tax, that was NICs [national insurance contributions] etc, so we set that out in the manifesto.
Asked again if it was saying NICs just for employees, Starmer went on:
It was very clear from our manifesto that what we were saying is we’re not to raise tax for working people. It wasn’t just the manifesto. We said it repeatedly in the campaign, and we intend to keep the promises that we made in our manifesto.
So I’m not going to reveal to you the details of the budget. You know that that’s not possible at this stage. What I will say is where we made promises in our manifesto we’ll will be keeping those promises.
This is going to be a budget that’s going to be tough, of course, but the focus will be on rebuilding our country and ensuring that we get the growth needed in economy.
Updated
Q: You are giving an interview out in the street. Is that a recognition that in first 100 days you did not communicate effectively enough?
Starmer says he is getting on with delivering the change that is needed, and that the investment summit delivered investment worth £63bn.
And that is the end of the interview. It wasn’t very revealing, but at least it provided fresh words (if not fresh insight) on the national insurance controversy.
Starmer insists Labour will not break manifesto promises, saying NI pledge referred to taxes on working people
Q: Did the manifesto rule out increasing any rate of national insurance? Or was it just employees’ national insurance?
Starmer claims it was “very clear” in the manifesto that Labour would not raise taxes on working people. He says Labour will be keeping those promises.
But he says he will not discuss what is in the budget.
This is consistent with that Rachel Reeves said yesterday about employers’ national insurance not being covered, although Reeves was more explicit.
Updated
Q: Do you agree with the health secretary that weight loss drugs could play a big role in addressing worklessness?
Starmer says he thinks these drugs could make a difference.
Q: What can you tell viewers about how their lives will improve?
Starmer says he wants to ensure investment benefits all parts of the country.
Keir Starmer is being interviews on BBC Breakfast now by Henry Zeffman, the BBC’s chief political correspondent.
Q: You are talking about a social homes investment. But the country needs 1.5 million homes.
Starmer says the investment summit yesterday was important. Investors are now saying they want to back the country. Young people know that owning their own home is the “base camp” for aspirations in life.
The government wants to let them do this, he says.
Paul Johnson, director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, has said that he thinks raising employers’ national insurance would be a breach of Labour’s manifesto. He told Times Radio recently:
It seems to me that would be a straightforward breach of a manifesto commitment.
I went back and read the manifesto and it says very clearly we will not raise rates of national insurance.
It doesn’t specify employee national insurance.
Politicians are often happy to ignore the IFS. But it is seen as the nearest the country has got to a neutral “umpire” on budget matters.
Tories claim raising employers' national insurance would be 'clear breach of Labour's manifesto'
Good morning. Conventional wisdom (often citing George Bush, and his “Read my lips, no new taxes” pledge) says that it is fatal for politicians to break election promises. In reality, that is not always the case. David Cameron never came close to meeting his 2010 commitment to get net migration below 100,000, and that did not stop him being re-elected in 2015 (although it did help him lose the 2016 Brexit referendum). There were many reasons why Boris Johnson was forced out of office, but raising national insurance in breach of a 2019 manifesto promise is not usually seen as one of his career-ending mistakes.
Nevertheless, breaking a promise is a huge risk, and that is why the very strong hints that Rachel Reeves will raiser employers’ national insurance in the budget has opened up a key debate. As Richard Partington and Kiran Stacey report, Labour is arguing that its pledge not to raise national insurance only covered employees’ national insurance, because the party repeatedly talked about taxes on working people.
But the Conservatives are saying people clearly took the promise to cover all national insurance. Laura Trott, shadow chief secretary to the Treasury, issued this statement last night, after Reeves gave an interview clarifying her interpretation of the Labour pledge. Trott said:
The chancellor has chosen Labour’s first investment summit to sow further uncertainty and chaos for businesses who are now braced for Labour’s Jobs Tax.
Regardless of what they say, it’s obvious to all that hiking employer national insurance is a clear breach of Labour’s manifesto. Rachel Reeves herself previously called it anti-business and we agree, it is a tax on work that will deter investment, employment and growth, and the OBR says it will lower wages.
Keir Starmer is giving an interview to BBC Breakfast at 8.30am, so we are likely to hear his take then.
Here is the agenda for the day.
9.30am: Keir Starmer chairs a meeting of political cabinet.
11.30am: Downing Street holds a lobby briefing.
11.30am: Wes Streeting, the health secretary, takes questions in the Commons.
After 12.30pm: MPs debate the second reading of the House of Lords (hereditary peers) bill, which will remove the right of remaining hereditary peers to sit in the Lords.
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