We highlighted the potential strengths of the Green Bay Packers roster entering training camp, but now it’s time for the other side of the evaluation equation: question marks.
What aspects of the roster assembled by Brian Gutekunst could hold the Packers back in 2023?
Here are the top question marks entering camp:
Inexperience on offense
Although there is speed, versatility, and big play potential, there is also a lot of inexperience on this offense, specifically at quarterback and the pass-catching positions. As LaFleur said earlier this offseason in regards to Love, patience will be needed. And while that is true, he also isn’t a rookie. This is his fourth NFL season and fourth in LaFleur’s offense. Mistakes will certainly be made, but what we need to see from him is progression. The same mistakes that happen in Week 3, hopefully, aren’t taking place in Week 7, or at least not as often.
At tight end, Green Bay will be relying heavily on two rookies in Musgrave and Kraft. The jump from college to the NFL at this position is particularly challenging, and one that LaFleur called the second-most difficult in football, behind only quarterback. In short, this is because of all the responsibilities that come with this role, from different alignments to knowing route concepts like a receiver to blocking and knowing the technique, against both the run and pass, like an offensive tackle. Historically, most rookies, even first-round picks, do not put up significant numbers.
The most experienced receiver the Packers have in terms of snaps played is Romeo Doubs, with 529. The good news for Green Bay with Doubs and Watson is that the second NFL season is often when receivers see a big jump in production. But with that said, with both having played fewer than 530 career snaps and having less than 45 receptions, we would be naive to think that there won’t be more ups and downs as well. Jayden Reed, meanwhile, is a rookie, and Samori Toure is close to that from a playing time standpoint. It’s important that Love have reliability around him, and there may be times that this element is missing with such a young group of receivers and tight ends.
Run defense
Green Bay again struggled to defend the run last season, ranking 28th in yards per carry allowed and 31st in DVOA. Not coincidentally, when the defense as a whole was playing its best football over the final month of the 2022 season, the run defense was improved as well. When a defense is able to slow the run, it puts the offense in predictable passing situations. When they are unable to slow the run, the defense is then on its heels and not able to play aggressively, as the offense has the entire playbook open to them.
On third downs last season, the Packers ranked eighth in conversion rate. The problem, however, was that they faced the fewest third down attempts per game. This is a stat tied to the run game. When the Packers were able to slow the run on early downs, it put the offense behind the sticks, and they were able to get off the field. But, the reason they faced so few third downs was because the offense was able to move the chains on either first or second down.
Looking at the makeup of the interior defensive line room, while there are pass-rush options, how the Packers are going to go about defending the run remains to be seen. TJ Slaton will be a key part of that on early downs, but he was inconsistent last season and is still relatively inexperienced, with less than 600 career snaps. Devonte Wyatt is also an inexperienced player, with Kenny Clark mentioning that continuing to refine his run game technique will be important for his success. Then there are rookies Colby Wooden and Karl Brooks, who will see snaps this season, but oftentimes, rookie defensive tackles are able to make greater impacts as pass rushers than run defenders.
If the Green Bay defense is going to find success this season, it begins with their play against the run. It has to be better.
Unknowns at safety
Coverage breakdowns and missed tackles plagued the safety position for the Packers last season. Darnell Savage, who was benched at one point in 2022 for his frequent contributions to the aforementioned issues, will be starting this year, but who will be lining up next to him is an unknown. Rudy Ford was able to provide some needed stability last season by being positioned correctly and being a sound tackler, but, in general, it was a small sample size with fewer than 350 defensive snaps. Jonathan Ford has one season as a starter. Tarvarius Moore hasn’t had significant defensive snaps since 2020 and Anthony Johnson is a rookie in only his second year playing the position. As a group, there are several willing run defenders but on the flip side, reliability in coverage is a question mark.
Within the Barry defense, safeties have a difficult role to fill. In addition to being responsible for limiting big plays on the back end because of the often light boxes utilized, they have to be capable run defenders as well, making tackles, filling gaps, and taking on blockers. PFF grades are not the be-all-end-all, but for what it’s worth, Savage ranked 68th out of 68 safeties in overall grade last season and Adrian Amos 64th. So although there are questions, this group doesn’t have to be lights out to be improved over last season.
Rookie kicker
There are several positions that the Packers appeared willing to weather the storm as they rely on rookies, and kicker is another. Anders Carlson, a sixth round pick, is the only kicker on the roster. His career at Auburn brought mixed results as he dealt with injuries and inconsistency, but he was handpicked by Bisaccia, who met with him during the pre-draft process. Daniel Carlson, Anders’ brother, worked with Bisaccia in Las Vegas and put together career years. Bisaccia is also a fan of Carlson’s mental makeup, as he put it, and big game experience.
The rookie packs some power, which was on display during training camp, but he will have to find consistency. Kicking in the Green Bay winters is also another element Carlson will have to navigate. Points are likely to be at a premium this season for the Packers, meaning taking advantage of all field goal and extra point attempts will be vital.
