Northampton and Leicester will have to overcome increasingly hefty odds if they are to prevent the two regular season frontrunners Saracens and Sale Sharks from hosting an S club party at this year’s Premiership final at Twickenham on 27 May.
The away team has triumphed just six times in 37 semi-final attempts since the format was introduced in 2002-03 and there has been only one such instance in the past seven seasons. The exception to the rule was Harlequins in 2021, when they staged the biggest comeback in Premiership history to nudge aside Bristol at Ashton Gate.
On top of the sheer weight of history, the Saints and the Tigers must also factor in the specific challenges of winning in Salford and Barnet this weekend, with Saracens and Sale both in decent shape for the run-in. Sarries had the luxury of being able to rest almost all their frontline players for the final round of the regular campaign while the Sharks limbered up by sticking eight tries on bottom club Newcastle.
Northampton also had the benefit of a bye week before their visit to the StoneX Stadium but their regular season stats highlight the biggest issue they need to overcome against Sarries’ England-laden squad. Although Saints have scored the most tries of any team in the league this season, with 84 from 20 games, they have also conceded more than anyone else bar the low-flying Falcons.
It does not bode particularly well with Owen Farrell, Maro Itoje and a fit-again Elliot Daly, back available in the nick of time for the playoffs, all keen to atone for last season’s disappointment when a last-gasp Freddie Burns drop goal saw Leicester steal the title in the closing moments at Twickenham. That said, Courtney Lawes is now restored to the Saints pack and the visitors scored five tries in a 45-39 defeat on their last trip to north London in November.
Gallagher Premiership: Saracens v Northampton (Saturday, 3.30pm), Sale v Leicester (Sunday, 3pm).
United Rugby Championship: Stormers v Connacht (Saturday, 3pm), Leinster v Munster (Saturday, 5.30pm).
Nor will Billy Vunipola be around to add some Sarries’ back-row punch but Saracens also have the benefit of experience on these big occasions. They were crowned domestic champions four times in five years between 2015 and 2019 before the salary cap saga put a temporary halt to their trophy gathering.
Sale, meanwhile, go into the Leicester game on the back of nine wins in their last 10 home league games, the most recent being Saturday’s 54-12 victory over the Falcons. Manu Tuilagi left the field with a hand injury but his director of rugby, Alex Sanderson, says he will be fit to face his former club.
Tactically, the two sides also know each other inside out with George Ford having switched from Leicester to Sale last summer and the Tigers’ head coach, Richard Wigglesworth, having been a key part of the Sharks’ last title-winning side in 2006. Forward power lies at the heart of both squads’ approach and there is no shortage of South African accents in both dressing rooms.
With a World Cup looming, it is also a big game from the perspective of several wannabe England squad members, with Ford high on the list. Bevan Rodd, Raffi Quirke and the in-form Tom Roebuck are among the home fringe candidates who will be hoping to make an eye-catching impact against the defending champions.
Leicester, however, will have to do without their former Sale winger Chris Ashton who was red carded for a dangerous tackle against Harlequins on Saturday and has played the final domestic game of his career unless he receives a miraculous disciplinary reprieve.
The Tigers do at least have plenty of experienced cover with Mike Brown, who has signed a new contract to stay at Welford Road next season, Anthony Watson and Freddie Steward all available to form an all-international back three should Wigglesworth wish to insure himself against Ford’s “spiral bomb” aerial kicking expertise.
The Premiership authorities could certainly do with two vibrant semi-finals for any number of reasons. The loss of Worcester and Wasps in mid-season continues to cast a heavy shadow over the league, with the financial future of London Irish also now under the microscope. The absence of any English club participation in this month’s two forthcoming European finals in Dublin has also further underlined the league’s current challenges.
They will still have eight clubs competing in next season’s Heineken Champions Cup, however, with Bath pipping Bristol to claim the final place courtesy of Saturday’s 61-29 victory over Saracens’ second string. In addition to the four semi-finalists, London Irish, Harlequins and Exeter will also be playing Champions Cup rugby next season. In the United Rugby Championship, meanwhile, Leinster will host Munster in one semi-final on Saturday with Stormers facing Connacht in the other.
