After initially appearing to be done and dusted by Christmas, it now seems as though there may be a Premier League title race after all.
Manchester City have hardly put a foot wrong since the start of the season, dropping points in just three games since the end of October, but Liverpool are right up behind them.
After a difficult winter, Jurgen Klopp’s side dragged themselves to within one point of the defending champions with a run of 10 consecutive league wins.
Sunday’s meeting at the Etihad was billed as a title decider, only to end in a 2-2 draw that decided very little. City have their destiny in their own hands and Liverpool require a favour from somewhere but it remains too close to call.
Both sides have seven games remaining. By calculating the home and away points-per-game of each club’s remaining opponents, The Independent has analysed City and Liverpool’s run-ins to assess where the title could be won and lost beyond this weekend.
Manchester City
Points: 74
Avg. opponent PPG: 1.25
Run-in difficulty: ★★
One of the first things you will notice about City’s run-in is that there are no meetings with their fellow members of the so-called ‘big six’. All those are out of the way now, with 19 points taken from a possible 27.
Instead, Pep Guardiola’s side are left to face a number of mid-table sides with little left to play for. Only Watford, who visit the Etihad on 23 April, are in desperate need of points in order to survive.
That is one of three consecutive home games this month. Brighton visit the weekend after the FA Cup semi-finals. Graham Potter’s side have a better record away from home this season than they do at the Amex.
By the time of a trip to Elland Road, Leeds may well be safe. City thrashed Marcelo Bielsa’s side 7-0 in the reverse fixture before Christmas, though could face a sterner test against Jesse Marsch, who has brought greater structure to the frenetic pressing.
The defending champions would probably still be confident of taking all three points, though, just as they would against Newcastle at the Etihad. A postponed trip to Molineux is not as intimidating as it first appears when you consider that Wolves have looked better on the road this season.
The visit to the London Stadium to play West Ham is City’s toughest test remaining and a fixture that Guardiola’s side dropped points in last season, though the prospect of David Moyes rotating before a potential Europa League final a few days later has to be part of the equation.
The visit from Aston Villa on 23 May has the greatest potential for a narrative-heavy climax. Could Steven Gerrard deliver the title to his former club with a shock win at the Etihad?
Given that City’s schedule otherwise looks relatively straightforward, Liverpool could do with a final day favour.
Liverpool
Points: 73
Avg. opponent PPG: 1.33
Run-in difficulty: ★★★½
Whichever way you want to cut it, Liverpool’s run-in is more difficult than City’s but Klopp and his players boast the only remaining unbeaten home record in the Premier League and will be confident that their remaining fixtures at Anfield can be navigated comfortably.
Back-to-back visits from Manchester United and Everton immediately stand out but may be two of the easier engagements down the stretch.
The neighbours from across Stanley Park have a particularly dreadful record on the road this season, losing 11 of 15 and picking up just 0.40 points per game. You could say that Everton at home is officially the ‘easiest’ fixture possible, based on this season’s results.
Away from home, there are no gimmees for Liverpool even once the trip to the Etihad is out of the way. Newcastle and Aston Villa have both improved under new management. St James’ and Villa Park will be tougher places to go than they were at the start of the season.
Southampton were in the top half of the home table until recently having enjoyed a decent season at St Mary’s, but if a five-game winless run and Saturday’s 6-0 defeat to Chelsea is anything to go by, the wheels are starting to come off.
A visit from Tottenham in May will be Liverpool’s toughest remaining test. Spurs’ away record has dramatically improved under Antonio Conte - now the joint fourth-best in the league - and includes that shock win at the Etihad which opened up this title race.
Wolves’ away record is just as good as Tottenham’s across the season. Bruno Lage’s side also still have to travel to Stamford Bridge and, given some ordinary underlying numbers, it is worth taking their impressive results on the road with a pinch of salt. Even so, it is not an ideal fixture to end a testing run.
