Household names predictably tend to lead the most notable statistical categories in the NFL. But not many expected Raiders running back Josh Jacobs to lead the league in rushing yards last season after needing to showcase himself to Josh McDaniels in the preseason opener.
After his breakout season, Jacobs is a strong candidate to repeat as the rushing champion. But there’s a rookie in Atlanta who’s capable of making an immediate impact to be in contention to lead the league.
Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is definitely listed below, because, as mentioned, stars tend to be league leaders in critical stats. But unforeseen breakout seasons make it difficult to predict stat leaders in plenty of categories. Jameis Winston led the NFL in passing yards in 2019.
With all of that in mind, here are predictions for the 2023 NFL statistical league leaders in 11 categories.
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Passing yards: Justin Herbert, Chargers
The arrival of Kellen Moore as the Chargers’ new offensive play-caller was a factor in why I tabbed Herbert as my pick. But I focused more on the fact that Herbert averaged 4,876 passing yards the past two seasons under former OC Joe Lombardi, who was fired partly because he didn’t call enough downfield plays. With Moore, Herbert will likely take more deep shots, but the new scheme will be designed for Herbert to utilize different parts of the field in the intermediate game. To summarize, less dinking and dunking and more alley-oop-like passes to Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Quentin Johnston and Joshua Palmer.
Passing TDs: Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs
Many expected Mahomes’s numbers to dip last season without Tyreek Hill, the star receiver who was traded to Miami. Instead, Mahomes recorded a league-high 41 passing touchdowns and captured his second Super Bowl and MVP trophies. Expect Mahomes to throw for another 40-plus touchdowns, despite the departure of wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster, who signed with the Patriots in the offseason. It might not matter who plays wide receiver for Mahomes, but he’ll need tight end Travis Kelce to remain available. The Chiefs do have talented options at wideout with Kadarius Toney, Skyy Moore, Rashee Rice and Justyn Ross.
Rushing yards: Bijan Robinson, Falcons
Bellcows such as Derrick Henry, Nick Chubb and Jacobs were strongly considered here, but I went with the rookie, Robinson, and not just because he’s younger than the aforementioned veterans. Robinson will likely see many touches playing behind inexperienced second-year quarterback Desmond Ridder. Also, the No. 8 pick in the 2023 draft will have the benefit of playing in Arthur Smith’s productive run-heavy offense, which helped Tyler Allgeier gain 1,035 rushing yards as a rookie fifth-round pick last season. Ezekiel Elliott and Kareem Hunt led the league in rushing yards as rookies in ’16 and ’17, respectively.
Rushing TDs: Nick Chubb, Browns
Chubb should see an uptick in goal line touches this season with Hunt and D’Ernest Johnson no longer in Cleveland. Chubb, who turns 28 in December, might see more carries overall because of the lack of depth behind him. But the Browns attempted to address that issue after executing a trade with the Patriots for running back Pierre Strong Jr., a 2022 fourth-round pick.
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Receptions: CeeDee Lamb, Cowboys
Lamb will have more help this season with the arrival of Brandin Cooks, but that shouldn’t affect his targets, especially with tight end Dalton Schultz leaving in free agency for the Texans. After a breakout 2022 season, Lamb is only getting better and has now taken over as Dak Prescott’s go-to target. But there are some concerns with coach Mike McCarthy’s taking over as the play-caller, something McCarthy hasn’t done since ’18 when he was the coach of the Packers. Last season, Lamb saw 156 targets and recorded 107 receptions, which ranked fourth and fifth in the league, respectively.
Receiving yards: Ja’Marr Chase, Bengals
If Chase hadn’t missed five games due to injury last season, he likely would have surpassed his rookie numbers—he had 1,455 receiving yards in 2021 and 1,046 in ’22. As Chase continues to ascend, expect him to have a similar third NFL season as Justin Jefferson, who recorded a league-high 1,809 yards for the Vikings last season. Chase also has the luxury of playing in a productive offense with quarterback Joe Burrow and wide receiver Tee Higgins, who takes some of the coverage spotlight from Chase.
Receiving touchdowns: Justin Jefferson, Vikings
Speaking of Jefferson, the only thing missing from his special 2022 season was the triple crown of receiving (league leader in receptions, yards and touchdowns), which he didn’t get because he failed to lead the league in touchdown receptions. Jefferson only recorded eight touchdowns, but expect him to go well over double digits because he’ll have less attention this year with the addition of rookie receiver Jordan Addison, Minnesota’s first-round pick.
Scoring: Tyler Bass, Bills
Fun fact: Running back LaDainian Tomlinson was the last nonkicker to lead the league in scoring, with 186 points in 2006. No one has cracked 170 points since Tomlinson’s historic season of 28 rushing touchdowns (31 total TDs). Seattle kicker Jason Myers was the league leader in ’22 with 143 points. Bass wasn’t too far behind with 129 points. Bass will get plenty of scoring opportunities with the Bills, often ending drives in field-goal range.
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Sacks: Micah Parsons, Cowboys
With Parsons now becoming a full-time pass rusher, he’ll likely record more than 13.5 sacks—the total he had last season. Parsons, a two-time First-Team All-Pro, could be on the verge of a memorable season because the Cowboys have a stacked defense with a deep group of pass rushers. If Parsons sees many favorable matchups this season, he might also be the favorite for Defensive Player of the Year.
Interceptions: Trevon Diggs, Cowboys
The Cowboys’ talented defense should also benefit Diggs, who has 17 career interceptions, including a league-high 11 in 2021. Diggs, who only had three interceptions last season, will probably get more opportunities for takeaways in ’23 because opposing quarterbacks won’t be able to avoid his side of the field with the arrival of corner Stephon Gilmore, the ’19 Defensive Player of the Year. Gilmore showed last season with the Colts that he still has plenty left in the tank.
Tackles: Nick Bolton, Chiefs
Bolton has been a tackling machine since the Chiefs selected him in the second round of the 2021 draft. The Super Bowl LVII hero went from 112 total tackles as a rookie to 180 last season, which ranked second only to Jaguars linebacker Foyesade Oluokun, who had 184 total tackles. Bolton quickly developed into a core defensive player for the Chiefs, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he leads the league in tackles multiple times in his career.
