For many, the Mornington Peninsula is postcard-picture perfect: the clifftop mansions, the long stretches of sandy shoreline, the wineries and day spas.
But the image couldn’t be further from the reality for Jeremy Maxwell.
“Everyone thinks it’s a lovely place for a holiday,” he says. “But for many people here, it’s not a holiday – it’s survival.”
Maxwell runs Southern Peninsula Community Support, servicing a region that has the largest number of homeless people in greater Melbourne.
About 140 people experiencing homelessness are known to services in the region, but Maxwell says the real number is closer to 300.
Many sleep rough along the foreshore each night. In the past 18 months, five people have died there.
“We’re bookended by Sorrento and Portsea on one side, and Mount Martha and Mount Eliza on the other, with Flinders at the back,” Maxwell says. “It’s this little circle of really rich people – and in the middle we’ve got a whole lot of battlers.”
The state electorate of Nepean has long been seen as an affluent, safe Liberal seat – although Labor had a surprise win in 2018. But the divide Maxwell describes could make the 2 May byelection more competitive than it appears on paper.
Triggered by the sudden resignation of Sam Groth, the contest is a three-way race between Liberal candidate Anthony Marsh, community independent Tracee Hutchison and One Nation’s Darren Hercus.
With the Labor government not fielding a candidate, the poll is seen as a test of the Liberals’ popularity seven months out from the state election – and whether One Nation poses a serious threat.
‘Highlights why the two-party system doesn’t work’
According to 2021 census data, residents in the electorate – covering the southern half of the peninsula – are older, less diverse and economically worse off than the Victorian average, likely due to the high proportion of retirees.
But Maxwell says the demographics are shifting, driven by an influx of sea-changers during the pandemic. Those moving in, he says, “didn’t go and buy Portsea mansions – they bought cheaper homes in places like Rosebud”. This is pushing up house prices and rents.
Most candidates have visited Southern Peninsula Community Support and committed to advocate for state government funding – something the organisation currently does not receive.
However, the campaigns have mostly focused on issues like road conditions, community safety, the cost of living and the fuel crisis, which is pronounced in the electorate due to its high dependence on cars.
The three main candidates also want to improve the Rosebud hospital, and agree that the 60-year-old facility is no longer fit for purpose and is struggling to meet demand from an ageing and growing population.
Hutchison says the lack of investment in the hospital showed the Liberals were “ineffectual” in advocating for the community. She claimed Labor was “completely ignoring” it and choosing instead to spend billions on hospitals in its own seats.
Sign up for the Breaking News Australia email“It highlights why the two-party system doesn’t work in a seat like Nepean,” she says.
The Liberals are pledging $340m to “completely rebuild” the Rosebud hospital, double its bed capacity and “keep it in public hands” if elected in November, while One Nation is advocating for a public-private partnership to fund works and save taxpayers money.
This is being seized upon by the Liberals, who on Thursday sent out text messages to voters claiming One Nation wanted to “privatise” the hospital.
The candidates
Hercus initially agreed to an interview with Guardian Australia, but pulled out on Wednesday following reports of infighting by other One Nation members and questions about the party’s handling of finances. Written questions were sent to the party, but no one responded to them.
But after One Nation’s strong showing at the South Australian election, the Liberals have pulled out all the stops to retain the seat.
On Wednesday – the first day of early voting – the state’s Liberal leader, Jess Wilson, spent much of her time at the Rosebud pre-poll booth with other MPs. She later released a social media video urging people to vote Liberal: “Let’s not go backwards and make changing the government even harder.”
The decision to preselect Marsh, though, has been subject to scrutiny. The Mornington peninsula shire mayor was granted special dispensation to run for the seat, having only joined the party days before being preselected, angering some local members. One Liberal volunteer even took out newspaper ads criticising Marsh’s council record.
But Marsh said he was “proud of what we’ve done on council”.
“People are clearly playing politics, and they see me as the biggest threat. It is what it is, but we’re not getting distracted by that noise,” he said.
Meanwhile, Hutchison is pitching herself as a “true” community independent, rejecting funding from Climate 200 and self funding her campaign, on which she’s spending about $40,000.
She says she wants voters looking to “park a protest vote” to do so with her.
“We need someone to represent a seat like Nepean, who is genuinely local, not being told what to say from a head office in Brisbane,” she said.
What are voters saying?
Voters approached by Guardian Australia on Wednesday were divided.
“I voted one independent, two Greens and three Liberal, then the rest, and One Nation last,” says Kerry, who asked for her surname not to be published. “I’m not usually a Liberal voter, but their candidate wants to rebuild the hospital.”
She heckled One Nation volunteers as she left the polling booth, saying she “can’t stand the racism and lack of policy”.
One man, who gave his name as Angus Taylor, says voters are frustrated at being asked to vote twice in seven months, calling the byelection a “waste of money and resources”. He says he voted One Nation, citing concerns about “mass migration” putting pressure on housing affordability, health services and energy prices.
He says he believes it is “impossible” for the Liberals to form government in November without more policies and hoped One Nation’s performance in Nepean would influence its direction.
“It’s about providing some influence of policy moving forward for the other major parties coming into the real election,” he says.
Bruce, who asks for his surname to be withheld, says he is a lifelong Liberal voter and sees the party as the only way to “kick the Labor government out”.
Then there’s Julie Dodwell, who goes a different way. She says the hospital “needs an upgrade” and she found it “very old” after dislocating her shoulder a couple of years ago. She says she voted for the Greens.
“I just wish them all well,” Dodwell says.
