Make no mistake: Portugal versus Croatia in the Round of 32 at the World Cup is a huge fixture, but both sides arrive short of their best.
Portugal is unbeaten but has only just navigated its group, drawing with DR Congo and Colombia while beating Uzbekistan, with Roberto Martínez’s side appearing constrained by its continued reliance on an aging Cristiano Ronaldo. Croatia also looks past its peak, with a veteran squad that lost to England before scraping past Panama and Ghana.
The numbers are tight: Portugal has scored six goals to Croatia’s five, with xG of 3.57 and 2.24 respectively. Croatia, however, edges conversion rate (21% to 16%), while possession leans slightly toward Portugal at 55% to 49%.
With little to separate them, it sets up a finely balanced contest—though Portugal has won seven of their 10 previous meetings.
